NBA Play of the Day for January 6th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Jan 06, 2020

The San Antonio Spurs are set to lock horns with the Milwaukee Bucks in the second leg of their home-and-home series. The Bucks won convincingly over the Spurs at home but should have a tougher test on the road. The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on Milwaukee, but it has dropped to -7 overnight. The Spurs are the early lean based on the larger than expected line, but as anyone who has watched the NBA this season can attest to, the Bucks can easily cover a seven-point road spread against a team with a losing record. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -7.5 on the Milwaukee Bucks. The consensus over/under total opened at 229.5 points. The point spread has seen a decrease to -7. The over/under total has dropped to 229.
Current Line: Milwaukee -7
O/U: 229
Location: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Start Time: 8:30 PM EST, Monday, January 6th
Last Meeting: Milwaukee defeated San Antonio 127-118 â€” January 4, 2020

Overview

The 32-5 Milwaukee Bucks have been the strongest team in the NBA this season. It is legitimately questionable if they are even better than the 2018-19 version of this squad, but with the East depleted following Kawhi going to the Clippers, Kyrie going to the Nets, and Jimmy Butler going to the Miami Heat, the Bucks are in a class all to themselves in the Eastern Conference. The injury report for this contest means waiting until game time to place your action may be the best bet, but confirmation that Giannis (probable, sore back) and George Hill (probable, illness) are playing will likely be accompanied by a spike in the consensus point spread. The Bucks have just five losses all season, and they appear to be poised to surpass the 60 win mark they achieved last season. However, they should fall just short of the 70 win barrier.

Though there is still more than half of the regular season remaining, the Bucks are steadfastly focused on the postseason. Giannis and the Bucks will be looking to change the narrative that the Toronto Raptorsâ€™ complete shutdown of Giannis created last season, namely that Giannis was not yet built or ready for the elite teams in the playoffs. Giannis has responded by jacking up five three-point shots per game in an effort to hone his three-point craft and to force teams to respect him from deep. After topping out at 0.7 threes made per game last season, he is now hitting 1.7 per game this season. He has done so despite barely missing a beat from his career-high .578 shooting percentage last season, as he is at .556 thus far on the campaign. His free throw shooting has gotten worse this season, but as he proved Saturday against these same Spurs, he can get locked in and be a high-percentage shooter at a momentâ€™s notice. This will be the final hurdle towards Giannis becoming a more complete player. Hopefully for the Bucks, the Spurs dare him to beat them from the line once again.

There is absolutely no reason that the San Antonio Spurs should be 14-20 at this point in the season. They have enough talent to be as high as the sixth seed in the West, but they have played terribly on the road. Somehow, 14-20 gets you into eighth place in the Western Conference this season. They are 10-9 at home, but just 4-11 on the road. Dejounte Murray missed Saturdayâ€™s contest between these two teams due to personal reasons, but he is expected back for tonightâ€™s home contest. The Spurs are likely to force Giannis to prove it at the line again tonight, a strategy that may have very different results after he was able to uncharacteristically hit 15 of 18 on Saturday. A pitiful 66 percent shooter for the charity stripe this season, the strategy they chose to employ should work more often than not. San Antonio will be looking for their marquee win of the season with an upset of the Bucks.

Trends

Milwaukee is 21-16 ATS on the season.
Milwaukee is 10-7 ATS on the road this season.
San Antonio is 12-21 ATS on the season.
San Antonio is 5-14 ATS at home this season.
Milwaukee is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in their last five road contests.
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in their last five contests as a road favorite.
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following a loss ATS.
Milwaukee is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 contests.
Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests played on one day of rest.
Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 contests against teams with losing records.
San Antonio is 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 contests.
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests as an underdog.
San Antonio is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Monday contests.
San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in their last six home contests against teams with winning road records.
San Antonio is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home contests.
San Antonio is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight contests played on one day of rest.
Over is 19-7-1 in Milwaukeeâ€™s last 27 road contests against teams with winning home records.
Under is 5-2 in Milwaukeeâ€™s seven contests after allowing 100 or more points in their previous contest.
Under is 5-2 in Milwaukeeâ€™s last seven contests when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their previous contest.
Over is 5-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last six home contests.
Over is 6-2 in San Antonioâ€™s last eight contests.
Over is 4-0 in San Antonioâ€™s last four contests against teams with winning records.
Over is 4-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last five contests played on one day of rest.

Prop Bets

DeMar DeRozan over 20.5 (-116)
DeMar DeRozan is averaging a solid 21.6 points per game this season, which is only up slightly from the 21.2 he posted in his first season with the Spurs. However, he has been much more efficient, as he is now shooting .524 from the field as opposed to the still strong .481 he shot last season. Both marks served as new career highs. DeRozan is averaging 25.7 points on a terrific .637 line from the field over his last seven contests, and he cleared the 20.5 total in each of those seven games. He should be in for another big performance against a Bucks team that he scored 27 points against this past Saturday. This prop will become an instant smash play if Giannis ends up not playing because of the sore back that put his name on the injury report this week. Punch a unit or two in now at FanDuel, and if Giannis ends up getting rested, add one or two more.

Bottom Line

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the best team in the NBA this season, and they look set for back-to-back victories over the San Antonio Spurs in their home-and-home series. The Bucks won by just nine at home, which makes the Spurs look like the lean for this contest. However, the Spurs played the â€œHack-a-Giannisâ€ card late, which kept the game closer than it may have otherwise been. The trends also support a Bucks victory, and as we have learned this season, one should allow the data to change your lean for a contest. The fact that this line opened at -7.5 and has dropped to -7 is a concern, but the simple fact of the matter is that -7 carries a higher win probability â€” high enough to consider this contest over the Oklahoma City Thunder at +7 over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road contests. They hold the same record in their last six road contests as a favorite. Cementing the Bucks as the play tonight is the fact that they are 10-2 in their last 12 contests against teams with losing records. Lock this in as a one-unit play before the line rises.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -7 (-110)