NBA Play of the Day for January 8th, 2020

by Raju Byfield |
Jan 08, 2020

The San Antonio Spurs are beginning a four-game road trip with a tough test against the Boston Celtics. They pulled off a shocking win against Milwaukee on Monday, and they will be looking to upset a Celtics team that may be without Kemba Walker for the fourth-straight game. The consensus point spread for this contest of +6 on the Spurs may prove to be a bargain if Walker is ruled out. On the other hand, if he is cleared to play tonight, the -6 on Boston could prove to be the stronger value. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -6 on the Boston Celtics. The consensus over/under total opened at 219.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -6. The over/under total has held steady at 219.5.
Current Line: Boston -6
O/U: 219.5
Location: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Start Time: 7:00 PM EST, Wednesday, January 8th
Last Meeting: Boston defeated San Antonio 135-115 â€” November 9, 2019

Overview

The 15-20 San Antonio Spurs seem to be hitting their stride at the right time. They currently sit in eighth place in the Western Conference and have star players DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge playing at their highest levels of the season. The Spurs are fresh off a stunning victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, and they could have an easier path to knocking off the top two teams in the Eastern Conference if the Celtics do not get Kemba Walker back tonight. The Spurs appear set to be mired in a five-team dogfight for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, and they will need to continue to find ways to beat some of the better teams in the league if they are to hang tight in eighth place. The Spurs have the talent to stay afloat, but they will likely need to stay relatively healthy and improve their pitiful road winning percentage to do so. Much like the victory over the Bucks did for them, a win over the Celtics â€” Kemba or no Kemba â€” would be a huge confidence boost for a team that is currently five games under .500.

The 25-9 Boston Celtics are fresh of an embarrassing loss to the Washington Wizards. Kemba Walker has missed the last three games with an illness, and he was never missed more than in Mondayâ€™s loss to the Wizards. The Celtics are an interesting story. They lost Kyrie Irving and Al Horford in the offseason, and they ended up adding Kemba Walker and Enes Kanter as â€œreplacements.â€ While their team became significantly less talented at point guard and center, they have seen rapid improvements from young stars Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum, both who never really meshed with the ball-dominant Kyrie Irving. Gordon Hayward has also returned from injury, and the Celtics are now a better team than they were last year, even if it is obvious they have less overall talent. It is fair to question whether or not this team is built for the playoffs, and whether or not they could beat the Philadelphia 76ers in the semi-finals, especially since theyâ€™ve lost to them twice already. The Celtics missed a golden opportunity to gain some ground on the Bucks by losing to the Wizards on the same day Milwaukee lost to the Spurs. Boston will need a win tonight to maintain their loosening grip on second place in the East.

Trends

San Antonio is 13-21 ATS on the season.
San Antonio is 7-7 ATS on the road this season.
Boston is 20-12 ATS on the season.
Boston is 9-6 ATS at home this season.
San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
San Antonio is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road contests.
San Antonio is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests.
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests as an underdog.
San Antonio is 0-7 ATS in their last seven Wednesday contests.
Boston is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Boston is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as a favorite.
Boston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests following a loss ATS.
Boston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests following a loss.
Boston is 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 home contests against teams with losing road records.
Over is 4-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last five contests.
Over is 5-2 in San Antonioâ€™s last seven contests as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last six contests played on one day of rest.
Over is 7-1 in San Antonioâ€™s last eight contests against teams with winning records.
Under is 4-1 in Bostonâ€™s last five contests.
Under is 4-0 in Bostonâ€™s last four contests as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Bostonâ€™s last seven contests following a loss.
Under is 4-0 in Bostonâ€™s last four contests against opponents who have scored 100 or more points in their previous contest.

Prop Bets

DeMar DeRozan over 21.5 points (-102)
The juice for this player prop is currently on the under. DeRozan has been on fire recently, averaging 25.62 points per game, and he has cleared 21.5 points in seven of his last eight contests. He is averaging just 21.7 points per game on the season, but the betting line has increased to 21.5 from the 20.5 we got on Monday exactly because of his recent scoring outburst. DeRozan is in the midst of a career season from an efficiency standpoint as his .530 field goal percentage, his .536 effective field goal percentage, and his .588 true shooting percentage are all career highs. The early money has been on the under for this prop due to the Boston Celtics being the number one overall scoring defense in the league. They are also one of the leagueâ€™s best in field goal percentage against. DeRozan is not as much of a lock to clear the over in this contest as he was on Monday â€” or much of one as he will be on Friday against Memphis. There is a chance the line moves back down to a much more comfortable 20.5 if money keeps coming in on the under, so exercise some patience and lock this in as a one-unit play at FanDuel prior to tip-off.

Bottom Line

The reason the NBA is so exciting is not only because of the incredible athletes but because anything can happen. This was never more evident in the Spursâ€™ upset of the Bucks, and in the Celtics inexplicable loss to the Wizards, both of which happened on the same day. It also makes the NBA the hardest sport to handicap. If Boston gets Kemba Walker back, they should be able to run wild on the San Antonio Spurs. The Celtics have an average scoring margin of 7.4 points on the season and demolished the Spurs by 20 points in San Antonio back in November. This game, especially at this spread, becomes a lot more difficult to peg a definitive lean on if Kemba does not return tonight. He has been out a week with an illness and is critical enough to the Celticsâ€™ sustained success that the Spurs could pull off their second upset in a row if he does not return. As such, we have a two-fold approach for this contest. If it is announced that Kemba Walker will indeed play, then the Celtics are the play at -6 via DraftKings. If he does not manage to get cleared, then the Spurs are the bet at +6.5 via FanDuel.

Pick: Boston Celtics -6 (-110)