NBA Play of the Day for November 11th, 2019

by Raju Byfield |
Nov 11, 2019

Todayâ€™s NBA play of the day is a battle of Southwest divisional foes. Both teams had their sights set on exciting seasons, but through nine games of the regular season, only one has realized that goal. The Houston Rockets sit at 6-3 and have looked better than expected with James Harden and Russell Westbrook sharing the floor. The New Orleans Pelicans lost prized number one overall pick Zion Williamson before the season even started and sit at a disappointing 2-7 on the season. These two teams have already met once this season with the Rockets pulling out a 126-123 victory over the Pelicans. Letâ€™s dig in.

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Details

Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -4.5 on Houston. The over/under total opened at 242.5 points. The point spread has held steady at -4.5. The consensus over/under has seen a slight increase to 243.5.
Current Line: Houston -4.5
O/U: 243.5
Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Start Time: 8:00 PM EST, Monday, November 11th
Last Meeting: Houston defeated New Orleans 126-123 â€“ October 26, 2019

Overview

The Houston Rockets welcomed Russell Westbrook to their merry band of misfits over the offseason, and the acquisition has gone much smoother than many talking heads had predicted over the summer. Russell Westbrook has willingly accepted the number two role in Houston and is averaging the best field goal percentage of his career in the process. Houston has a 6-3 record on the season, but a closer look at their wins and losses reveals a tale much different than their record may indicate. The Rockets have beat the teams that they were supposed to beat but ended up losing to each of the teams they faced with legit playoff aspirations. Houston is still working in their new pieces and trying to find chemistry and synergy, but they will need to find a way to be more competitive against playoff-bound teams if they are to have any chance at postseason success.

Prior to Zion Williamsonâ€™s injury, the New Orleans Pelicans projected as one of the most exciting teams in the entire NBA. Their impressive haul from the Anthony Davis trade, and their three first-round picks in the 2019 NBA Draft promised prime time worthy basketball on a nightly basis. Instead, we have a fun, but barely competitive squad that has surrendered the most points per game in the entire NBA. Brandon Ingram is shining without Zion eating up a projected 18 plus shots per game, and if he can keep it up he could be on his way to his first-ever all-star appearance. Barring any setbacks in his recovery, the Pelicans should get Williamson back in December or January. The Pelicans are likely at least a year away from becoming a playoff contender.

Trends

The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams.
Under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 contests between these two teams played in New Orleans.
Houston is 3-6 ATS on the season.
Houston is 2-3 ATS on the road this season.
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS on the season.
New Orleans is 1-3 ATS at home this season.
Houston is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with a winning percentage below .400.
Houston is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 contests following a win ATS.
Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests.
Houston is 15-7-1 in their last 23 contests against the Western Conference.
Houston is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests following a straight-up win.
Houston is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road contests against teams with a losing home record.
New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Monday contests.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests following a win ATS.
New Orleans is 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home contests.
New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with winning records.
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests following a straight-up win.
Under is 4-0 in Houstonâ€™s last four road contests.
Under is 4-1 in Houstonâ€™s last five contests.
Over is 4-1 in Houstonâ€™s last five contests against the Western Conference.
Under is 7-3-1 in Houstonâ€™s last 11 contests following a straight-up win.
Over is 5-2 in Houstonâ€™s last seven contests played on one day of rest.
Over is 8-2 in New Orleansâ€™ last 10 contests against the Western Conference.
Under is 6-2 in New Orleansâ€™ last eight contests following a win ATS.
Over is 11-5 in New Orleansâ€™ last 16 contests.
Under is 7-2 in New Orleansâ€™ last nine contests following a straight-up win.
Over is 9-3-1 in New Orleansâ€™ last 13 contests played on one day of rest.

Prop Bets

James Harden over 36.5 points (-106)
James Harden is averaging 37.1 points per game on the season. He has cleared the posted total of 36.5 points in five of his ten contests. This line was set very well as Harden scored exactly 36 points in two other contests. His home/road splits provide a potential edge here as Harden shoulders a larger scoring load away from the Toyota Center. He has averaged 42 points per game on the road. Adding fuel to over being the play is the fact that the New Orleans Pelicans have allowed a league-high 122.4 points per game on the season. The juice, however, suggests that the under may be where the early money has come in as the over sits at -106 odds at FanDuel, while the under sits at -116. James Harden against the softest defense from team points per game allowed perspective should probably have been set at a higher number. For proof, we need to look no further than the Russell Westbrook points prop. He is averaging just 21.4 points per game on the season but had his over/under total listed at a defense (or lack of one) adjusted 22.5 points. The over is the play and is worth multi-unit consideration.

Brandon Ingram over 24.5 points (-114)
Ingram is averaging 25.9 points per game on the season and is a strong bet to score 25 or more points if he can stay out of foul trouble. The Rockets, much like his own team, are a matador defense that ranks among the bottom six in points per game allowed (118.7 per contest). Ingram has cleared the posted total of 24.5 points in seven of his nine contests. He was injured and played under 14 minutes in one and was held to 22 points in his first game of the season against the Toronto Raptors and O.G. Anunobyâ€™s plus defense. Ingram has scored 26 points per game at home this season, and the current juice on the over suggests that this is where the early money has poured in. Follow the money for a one-unit play.

Bottom Line

The New Orleans Pelicans have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, and have not fared much better against the spread. The early action on this contest has seen 83 percent of the wager volume come in on the Houston Rockets to cover the spread. The spread here appears to be influenced by the previous contest between these two teams this season. That affair ended with a surprisingly slim 126-123 victory for the Houston Rockets. That game was played in Houston and closed with a -12 consensus point spread on the Rockets.

This contest is in New Orleans and opened with a consensus point spread of -4.5 on the Rockets. The Rockets have an average scoring margin of 9.16 points in their wins this season. After some narrow victories early in the season, the Rockets have won each of their last three contests in convincing fashion. They have won by more than 4.5 points in each, and have an average scoring margin of 15.6 points in those contests. While the Pelicans obviously have a puncherâ€™s chance, the Rockets are heavy favorites to pull out the straight-up victory. Their recent form suggests that any victory against one of the worst teams in the league will be a large enough win to cover the spread.

Pick: Houston Rockets -4.5 (-110)