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NBA Play of the Day for November 15th, 2019

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In what the schedule makers likely had originally coined as a battle between two title favorites, tonight’s contest between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors has taken on a very different feel. The Warriors were not very good with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and D’Angelo Russell together. Without Curry, they are one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. It is true that Curry and Russell were never going to be a fit if Russell had to play off the ball, and Russell’s recent scoring outburst solidifies that discourse. The Celtics have won nine straight contests since their loss in their season opener and sit at 6-2-2 against the spread on the season. They have scored a healthy 116.1 points per game on the season. Golden State is an atrocious 2-10 on the season. They are 4-8 against the spread through 12 contests The Warriors have scored a solid 110.2 points per game on the season. However, they have surrendered 122.1 points per contest. 

Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -8 on the Boston Celtics. The consensus over/under total opened at 225.5 points. The point spread has seen some movement at some books, but the consensus point spread still sits at -8. The over/under total has also seen some movement at some books, but the consensus still sits at 225.5.
  • Current Line: Boston -8
  • O/U: 225.5
  • Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California 
  • Start Time: 10:30 PM EST, Friday, November 15th
  • Last Meeting: Boston defeated Golden State 128-95 – November 27, 2017

Overview

With the Toronto Raptors losing Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, and the Philadelphia 76ers failing to adequately address the losses of Jimmy Butler and J.J. Reddick, the Boston Celtics are now the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. They lost some key pieces of their own in Kyrie Irving and Al Horford, but actually upgraded by bringing in the less talented, but all-star in his own right in point guard Kemba Walker. Walker is a much better fit than Kyrie Irving was ever going to be. They brought in Enes Kanter to help try and fill the void Al Horford’s departure left, but replacing a consummate pro, who was both a locker room leader and a glue guy is an improbable task. Still, the Celtics, while less talented than the 208-19 version of this team by a comfortable margin, are finally playing at or near the level we all expected them to play at last season. The Celtics will be looking to extend their winning streak to 10 games. 

Golden State is nowhere near the same team we saw go to the NBA Finals last season. Kevin Durant left in free agency, but the Warriors were lucky enough to work a sign and trade that landed them all-star D’Angelo Russell in return. Klay Thompson is out until at least March, and Stephen Curry is out for the next two to three months. The Warriors are attempting to get by with a ragtag group of substitutes added to a starting lineup that consists of all-stars D’Angelo Russell and Draymond Green. They would actually probably be winning games in the Eastern Conference, but not against teams like the Boston Celtics. The Warriors season is going to get much worse before it gets any better, but the Warriors will get to retain their 2020 pick if it falls in the top 20. With the lottery staring them straight in the face, the Warriors have likely already sent scouts to take a look at bigs like James Wiseman. The Warriors will be a team to consider targeting against the spread all season. 

Trends

  • Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Golden State.
  • Boston is 6-0 ATS in their last six contests in Golden State. 
  • The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 4-0 in the last four contests between these two teams played in Golden State. 
  • Under is 12-2 in the last 14 contests between these two teams. 
  • Boston is 6-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Boston is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Golden State is 4-8 ATS on the season. 
  • Golden State is 1-5 ATS at home this season. 
  • Boston is 3-0-2 ATS in their last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Boston is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road contests. 
  • Boston is 3-0-1 in their last four contests on one day of rest. 
  • Boston is 3-1-2 in their last six contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Boston is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Golden State is 4-11-1 in their last 16 contests. 
  • Golden State is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Golden State is 1-6-1 in their last eight contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Golden State is 0-4-1 in their last five contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Boston’s last five contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Boston’s last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Over is 15-6 in Boston’s last 21 Friday contests. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Boston’s last seven contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Boston’s last seven contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Under is 7-0 in Golden State’s last seven contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 6-1 in Golden State’s last seven Friday contests. 
  • Over is 5-1 in Golden State’s last six contests. 
  • Over is 5-2 in Golden State’s last seven home contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Golden State’s last five contests following a straight-up loss. 

Prop Bets 

Jaylen Brown over 20.5 points (-106)
Jaylen Brown has been on fire over the past three games. Brown now has a larger role with Gordon Hayward breaking his hand, and will get the 16 to 18 shots needed for him to clear this total. Over his past three contests, Brown is averaging 25.7 points per game. This trend caused a total that opened at 19.5 to be moved to 20.5 points overnight. While Brown would be a very strong bet to clear this total against any team given his new role, he is almost a lock when playing a Golden State team allowing the second-most points per game in the league at 121.1 points per contest. Lock this one as a multi-unit play before sharp money moves this total even further. 

D’Angelo Russell over 26.5 points (-118)
The juice on this prop tells us all we need to know about what the sharps and early bettors feel about this player prop. Unlike the Brown prop above, however, there is no room for books to boost this total higher. D’Angelo Russell is averaging 25.7 points per game on the season but has averaged a robust 33.2 points per game in his last five outings. He has failed to clear the posted total in just one of those contests. He reached 30 points in each of the others. With Stephen Curry out for at least the next few months, Russell is now the engine that powers the Warriors. He may have a lower efficiency night against the Celtics than he has seen in his last few contests, but he should have the volume to easily eclipse this total. Eat the juice and lock Russell in as a one unit play. 

Bottom Line

Golden State continues to reel in the wake of the loss of Stephen Curry for what might be the season. They have lost their last two contests by an average of 25 points. The Boston Celtics have been one of the very best teams in the league this season, and should easily cover the -8 point spread if they can avoid playing down to their competition. The Celtics have won nine straight contests, and have won those contests by an average scoring margin of 11.55 points. The spread for this contest is large enough to give one pause, but the fact that one of the books on our live odds page already has this contest at -8.5 suggests that the sharps have still found some value in this line. Lock the Celtics in as a one-unit play at -8 before the rest of the books follow suit. 

Pick: Boston Celtics -8 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.