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NBA Play of the Day for November 20th, 2019

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Today’s NBA play of the day is a rematch of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals between the Orlando Magic and the Toronto Raptors. This will be their second meeting of the year, with the prior contest having also been played in Toronto. The Raptors won that meeting 104-95. Toronto is a strong 9-4 on the season. The Magic, on the other hand, sit at 6-7 on the campaign. While the Magic and the Raptors have two of the deeper teams in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors have a much different idea of what will constitute a successful season. The Raptors will not be happy unless they claw their way back to the NBA Finals. The Magic, on the other hand, after an uneventful offseason, will be happy just to make it back to the postseason. Even if we take line shading into account, -4 on the Raptors seems like a very favorable line. Let’s dig in to uncover if the initial lean holds up.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -4.5 on the Toronto Raptors. The consensus over/under total opened at 208.5 points. The point spread has seen some minor movement and has fallen to -4 on Toronto. The over/under total has held steady at 208.5. 
  • Current Line: Toronto -4
  • O/U: 208.5
  • Location: Scotia Bank Arena, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
  • Start Time: 7:30 PM EST, Wednesday, November 20th
  • Last Meeting: Toronto defeated Orlando 104-95 – October 28, 2019

Overview 

The 6-7 Orlando Magic were swept by the Toronto Raptors in the playoffs last season, and they will be looking to exact some revenge for that series along with an earlier road loss to them this season. Orlando has reeled off three straight wins, and they will be looking for their first road victory of the season tonight against the Toronto Raptors. The Magic’s young nucleus appears to have taken another step this season, but they were unable to add any key pieces in the offseason. Their marquee win of the season came on their recent homestand when they were able to secure a 15-point victory over the Philadelphia 76ers. The Magic will look to become a .500 ball club with a win over the defending champions tonight. 

The 9-4, defending champion Toronto Raptors have been a pleasant surprise this season, and they are playing like a club that has championship aspirations even without Kawhi Leonard. Their marquee win of the season was a shorthanded, convincing win against old friend Danny Green, old nemesis LeBron James, and the Los Angeles Lakers. They look like one of the Eastern Conferences’ three best teams, and they have been much stronger than many expected from them after losing two key pieces to their championship run this offseason. They have been able to keep themselves afloat despite injuries to Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, and they will look to become the fifth team in the league to reach double-digit wins on the season tonight against an old rival in the Orlando Magic. 

Trends 

  • Toronto is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against Orlando. 
  • Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests in Toronto. 
  • The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 5-1 in the last six contests between these two teams. 
  • Orlando is 4-8 ATS on the season. 
  • Orlando is 1-3 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Toronto is 8-5 ATS on the season. 
  • Toronto is 4-1 ATS at home this season. 
  • Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last six road contests. 
  • Orlando is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Orlando is 6-1 ATS in their last seven Wednesday contests. 
  • Orlando is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 contests. 
  • Orlando is 0-6 ATS in their last six contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Toronto is 4-0 ATS in their last four contests against the Southeast division. 
  • Toronto is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests against teams with losing records. 
  • Toronto is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. 
  • Toronto is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Toronto is 5-2 ATS in their last seven Wednesday contests. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Orlando’s last four contests. 
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Orlando’s last four contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Orlando’s last four contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Under is 6-2 in Orlando’s last eight contests against the Atlantic division. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Orlando’s last seven road contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five home contests. 
  • Under is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Toronto’s last seven contests against the Southeast division. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five contests played on one day of rest. 
  • Over is 4-0 in Toronto’s last four Wednesday contests.

Prop Bets 

Nikola Vucevic over 17.5 points (-112)
Nikola Vucevic looks like a good bet to hit the over against a Toronto Raptors team that will be without key interior defender Serge Ibaka. Vucevic is averaging 18.2 points per game on the season, and he has cleared the posted total in eight of his 13 contests. He looked excellent against the Raptors last year when he scored 20 points per game during the regular season. The early money seems to agree that the over is the play here with the over sitting at -112 at FanDuel, while the under is at -108. With that being said, Vucevic has had his struggles against the Raptors in the past. He scored just five points against the Raptors earlier this season on an uncharacteristic 1 for 13 shooting night. Including that Raptors game, he is averaging just 12.5 points per game on the road this season. Vucevic was also manhandled by the Raptors in the playoffs last season when he scored just 11.2 points per contest. As we can see, there is ample information for one to lean to either the over or the under. Tipping the scales for the over being the play is the fact that Serge Ibaka will be sidelined. Roll with the early money and punch in Vucevic over 17.5 points as the play. 

Bottom Line 

The Toronto Raptors have been strong against the spread at home this season. The Raptors are playing at home, and even down Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, they project as the stronger team in this contest. Full healthy, -4 would be a cakewalk. Banged up, -4 will be tougher as there is no guarantee that Toronto even wins straight up. With that being said, the Toronto Raptors are 3-2 without Ibaka and Lowry, and they have recorded convincing wins against title favorites in the Los Angeles Lakers, 2018-19 Western Conference Finals loser in the Portland TrailBlazers, and the Charlotte Hornets. As mentioned in our trends section, the Raptors are 4-1 against the spread in their last five contests against Orlando. The Raptors appear to be the much stronger lean for this contest, so they’re worth a one-unit play at FanDuel. 

Pick: Toronto Raptors -4 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.