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NBA Play of the Day for November 22nd, 2019

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Luka Doncic versus the Cleveland Cavaliers. Doncic has been on an absolute tear for the Dallas Mavericks and will put his exciting offensive skillset on display against the Cavaliers. The Mavericks have ridden Luka to a surprising 9-5 record, and they will look to join the 10 win club. To do so, they only have to win what should be an easy matchup against a 4-10 Cleveland Cavaliers that team they beat by 20 points just earlier this month.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -10 on the Dallas Mavericks. The consensus over/under total opened at 220 points. The point spread has held steady at -10. The over/under total has also held steady at 220. 
  • Current Line: Dallas -10
  • O/U: 220
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
  • Start Time: 8:30 PM EST, Friday, November 22nd
  • Last Meeting: Dallas defeated Cleveland 131-111 – November 3, 2019

Overview

Luke Doncic. No conversation about the 2019-20 Dallas Mavericks can begin without first mentioning the Slovenian Sensation. Doncic has carried a talent-deficient roster to a stunning 9-5 record, proving that a superstar player can carry you even in the tougher Western Conference. Kristaps Porzingis has been a great fit beside Doncic this season, and they have the makings of a duo that can easily attract another star talent looking to take this team to the next level. The Mavericks have marquee wins over the Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets, but they were curiously swept by the New York Knicks in their two-game season series. The Mavericks have the firepower to make it to the playoffs, but they will have to fight all season and find a way not to play down to their competition. The favorites to sign Danny Green before he chose more money from a suddenly cash-flush Los Angeles Lakers, the Mavs could still be on the lookout for another high-level shooter to ensure that they are more than just a one and done playoff team. The Mavericks will look to become the fifth 10 win team in the Western Conference with a win over the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to flash their rabbit’s foot in the NBA Draft’s lottery, but they also continue to make head-scratching personnel decisions with their picks. Drafting a shoot-first point guard in Darius Garland made little sense after the Cavaliers selected shoot-first point guard Collin Sexton in the 2018 NBA Draft. Sexton appears to have taken a second-year leap, but instead of wondering how he fits with Garland, he could be working the pick and roll with someone like Rui Hachimura. Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Jordan Clarkson help the Cavaliers remain somewhat competitive, but for a team expected to be sellers once new contracts can be traded in December, the season is only going to get tougher for the sad Cavaliers roster. At 4-10, the Cavaliers do not have a marquee win to speak of. They have lost last their last three contests by an average of 20.3 points per game. They will be in for another tough test on the road against the Dallas Mavericks. 

Trends 

  • Cleveland us 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 contests against Dallas. 
  • The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests between these two teams. 
  • Cleveland is 6-7 ATS on the season. 
  • Cleveland is 4-4 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Dallas is 7-7 ATS on the season. 
  • Dallas is 3-5 ATS at home this season. 
  • Cleveland is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine contests against the Southwest division. 
  • Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last four home contests. 
  • Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in their last six contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Dallas is 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight contests against the Central division. 
  • Dallas is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 contests played on one day of rest.
  • Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against the Eastern Conference. 
  • Dallas is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests following a win. 
  • Under is 5-2 in Cleveland’s last seven contests. 
  • Over is 8-3 in Cleveland’s last 11 contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five contests against the Southwest division. 
  • Over is 5-1 in Cleveland’s last six contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Over is 6-0 in Dallas’ last six contests following a win ATS. 
  • Over is 10-3 in Dallas’ last 13 contests. 
  • Over is 7-1 in Dallas’ last eight contests following a win. 
  • Over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven home contests.

Prop Bets 

Luka Doncic over 29.5 points (-104)
In his last two games, Luka Doncic has had a 35 point triple-double in 25 minutes and became the second-youngest player ever to record a 40 point triple-double. He is averaging 29.9 points per game on the season, and he dropped 29 points against them on November 3rd. Doncic has scored 33 or more points in four of his last five contests, He has cleared the posted total in seven of his 14 contests this season, and he has scored 29 in two others. Tonight he will be facing Cleveland Cavaliers’ backcourt, which suffers from a distinct lack of defensive talent. Doncic is the size of a power forward, and he will not only be initiating the offense, but he’ll also be logging the majority of his minutes at the one. He steps his game up even further when playing at home, where he averages 32.8 points per contest. The juice is currently on the under, which suggests that is where the early money has come in. With that being said, this line should really be 30.5 for this contest. Take the value and run. 

Bottom Line 

The -10 point spread tells us all we need to know about the current form and talent that these two teams currently possess. This is still the NBA, where every team has a puncher’s chance, but the Cavs have lost last their last three contests by an average of 20.3 points per game. Now playing at home, the Mavericks beat the Cavaliers by 20 points in Cleveland on November 3rd. The point spread for this contest would likely be in the teens if not for Vegas worrying about the sharps having a field day with the Cavaliers to cover, a scenario that could deeply affect the bottom line for the day. Still, -10 on a back-to-back is a large enough number to keep this as a single-unit play. The Mavericks cover probability still outweighs the Cavaliers probability to cover, but the back door will be wide open if Dallas takes its foot off of the gas or rests its starters in the fourth. In that light, we will be laying action on both the first half and the full game. Mavs -5.5 first half at FanDuel, and Mavs -10 full game. 

Pick: Dallas Mavericks -10 (-110) and -5.5 first half (-116)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.