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NBA Play of the Day for November 29th, 2019

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Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks are set to take on the upstart Phoenix Suns. The pair are two of the most surprising teams in the NBA through a month of the season. If the season ended today, both of them would make the playoffs. The Mavericks sit at fifth place in the Western Conference with an 11-6 record. The Suns are holding onto the eighth spot with what is now an 8-9 record. If you have time and are up late on the east coast, do yourself a favor and tune in to watch Doncic dominate in the first half. 

Details

  • Opening Lines: The consensus point spread for this contest opened at -1.5 on the Dallas Mavericks. The consensus over/under total opened at 233 points. The point spread has held steady at -1.5. The over/under total has also held steady at 233.
  • Current Line: Dallas -1.5
  • O/U: 233
  • Location: Talking Stick Resort Arena, Phoenix, Arizona
  • Start Time: 9:00 PM EST, Friday, November 29th
  • Last Meeting: Dallas defeated Phoenix 120-109 — April 9, 2019

Overview

Luka Doncic. When you discuss the Dallas Mavericks, you have no choice but to start gushing about him. One of the most impressive 20-year-olds ever, it is scary that he is only going to get better. Doncic has thrived playing point guard for the Mavericks, and he has been able to fill what would have been a major roster hole at the same time. The move to the one may have been based on necessity, but it was the right move for Luka’s career, and for the Dallas Mavericks team. The future is now in Dallas, and they have already started searching the trade market for a third star to join Luka and Kristaps Porzingis. The Mavericks are a shocking 11-6 on the season and have solidified themselves as what everyone expects to be a playoff team. Dallas will look to get back on the winning track in what should be an easy victory against the Phoenix Suns. 

Phoenix is now 8-9 on the season, falling below .500 for the first time all season. The Suns had quite the run, one that was all the more impressive because DeAndre Ayton was out with a suspension. However, reality has set. The Phoenix Suns are not a playoff team without Ayton, and it is fair to question if they are even a legitimate threat with him in the lineup. With teams like Portland working their issues out, Phoenix is destined to fall out of playoff position within the next six to seven contests. What their hot start to the season did accentuate, however, is that the future is finally looking bright for this perennial lottery team. Phoenix has refused to play defense this season, and are a regular candidate to allow over 120 points. This and the trends that you will see below are what make every Phoenix contest against a good team like Dallas an over candidate (Dallas’ recent play also suggests the over). The Suns are sorely missing their man in the middle, and hopefully, they can address some of their defensive issues when Ayton returns to the lineup. 

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Trends

  • Over is 8-3 in the last 11 contests played between these two teams in Phoenix. 
  • The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven contests between these two teams.
  • Dallas is 1-8 ATS in their last nine contests against Phoenix. 
  • Dallas is 0-4 ATS in the last four contests played in Phoenix. 
  • Dallas is 9-8 ATS on the season. 
  • Dallas is 5-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Phoenix is 10-7 ATS on the season. 
  • Phoenix is 6-5 ATS at home this season. 
  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests.
  • Dallas is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road contests. 
  • Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last five contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following a straight-up win. 
  • Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests. 
  • Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last five contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Phoenix is 1-5 ATS in their last six contests. 
  • Phoenix is 0-4 ATS in their last four contests against teams with winning records. 
  • Over is 6-1 in Dallas’ last seven road contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five contests. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Dallas’ last five contests against the Pacific division. 
  • Over is 8-1 in Dallas’ last nine contests against the Western Conference. 
  • Over is 7-1 in Phoenix’s last eight home contests. 
  • Over is 9-2 in Phoenix’s last 11 contests.
  • Over is 6-1 in Phoenix’s last seven contests against the Southwest division. 
  • Over is 4-1 in Phoenix’s last five contests against the Western Conference. 

Prop Bets

Dallas -0.5 first half (-112)
Take advantage of what looks like a trap line for Phoenix bettors. There is absolutely no reason that this line should be only -1.5 for the full game, and there is even less of a reason that the point spread should be -0.5 for the first half. Dallas has been on a roll recently, with the only blip on the radar coming against one of the best two teams in the NBA in the Los Angeles Clippers. Dallas has been roaring to great starts in their contests, so much so that Doncic has been regularly rested for the majority, if not the entirety of fourth quarters. There is not much more to say about this first-half line except that you should lock it in before the number rises, or the juice skyrockets. Punch this one in at FanDuel as soon as possible. 

Luka Doncic over 31.5 points (-102)
This player prop has an extremely high win probability, the caveat here being of course that Luke Doncic is a daily ‘get rested in the fourth quarter’ candidate. If Dallas is up big as expected, Doncic will be rested in the fourth quarter like he was against Golden State, Cleveland, and surprisingly the Houston Rockets. Luckily, Doncic was able to clear the posted total for those contests in all three of those games prior to being rested. The juice for this player prop is currently on the under as the early bettors and sharps have taken this into account. The total for this prop is one point higher than it should be, as the books have smartly compensated for the opponent and their lack of defense. Working against the prop clicking is the fact that Luka has been three points better per game at home. Luka is averaging 31.4 points per game at home, but only 28.3 on the road. Aside from being bottled up by the Los Angeles Clippers, Luka has been on a roll and has looked borderline unstoppable. Only being rested in the fourth seems to stand in the way of this prop clicking, and as such, we will keep this to a one-unit wager. Lock it in. 

Bottom Line

The point spread for this contest makes little sense and is a strong candidate to see significant movement before game time. Dallas is the far superior team, but they are only 1.5 point favorites due to playing on the road. Doncic and the Mavericks are on a roll and should have their way with the Phoenix Suns. The spread here is small enough that we do not have to worry about a backdoor cover. It is also small enough that if this game somehow turns into a tightly contested wire to wire matchup that the spread is still going to be covered with a Mavericks victory. Phoenix did indeed start the season hot, and perhaps Vegas is hoping causal bettors don’t dig deeper on team trends. Phoenix is 0-4 against the spread in their last four contests against teams with winning records. If that was not enough to convince you of the inherent value in the -1.5 line, the Suns are 1-5 against the spread in their last six contests overall. This is a multi-unit line. Lock it in at -110 at DraftKings.

Pick: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 (-110)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.