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NBA Play of the Day for November 6th, 2019

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Today’s contest is a battle between two teams who have their sights set on a Conference Finals appearance this season. Anything less would be considered a disappointment for both the Philadelphia 76ers and the Utah Jazz. Both teams have had impressive starts to the season, and they will be looking to keep the good times rolling in tonight’s contest. The consensus point spread for this contest has moved from -1.5 to -2 overnight. Let’s dig in.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: The line for this contest opened at -1.5 on Utah. The over/under total opened at 211.5 points. The point spread has seen some movement and now sits at -2 on Utah. The consensus over/under total has seen a slight increase to 210.5. 
  • Current Line: Utah -2
  • O/U: 210.5
  • Location: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
  • Start Time: 9:00 PM EST, Wednesday, November 6th
  • Last Meeting: Philadelphia defeated Utah 114-97 – December 27, 2018

Overview 

The 5-1 Philadelphia 76ers will be welcoming back franchise player Joel Embiid in tonight’s contest. Embiid served a two-game suspension for his fight with Minnesota Timberwolves’ big man Karl Anthony-Towns. The Sixers went 1-1 in his absence, dropping their first game of the season to the upstart Phoenix Suns. Philadelphia will be on a mission to get back to their winning ways in tonight’s contest, but they will be up against a tough Utah Jazz team. 

The Utah Jazz now have an enviable collection of talent due to the additions of Mike Conley Jr., and Bojan Bogdanovic, and they sit at 4-3 on the season. Rudy Gobert has been feeling left out of the offense, and despite the team’s strong start to the season, he recently voiced his displeasure. The Jazz have dropped two straight contests, and Gobert’s comments suggest there may be some turmoil behind the scenes on a team that suddenly has four talented starters as opposed to just Donovan Mitchell and Gobert. The Jazz will be hoping that some home cooking can help right the ship against the Sixers. 

Trends 

  • Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in the last four contests between these two teams.
  • Under is 9-2 in their last 11 contests between these two teams. 
  • Under is 5-0 in the last five contests between these two teams played in Utah.
  • Philadelphia is 3-2 ATS on the season. 
  • Philadelphia is 1-2 ATS on the road this season. 
  • Utah is 2-5 ATS this season.
  • Utah is 2-1 ATS at home this season.
  • Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests following a loss ATS. 
  • Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in their last six contests against winning teams.
  • Philadelphia is 5-2-1 in their last eight contests. 
  • Utah is 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. 
  • Utah is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests against the Atlantic division. 
  • Utah is 1-4 ATS in their last five home contests against teams with a winning road record.
  • Utah is 5-2 ATS in their last seven home contests. 
  • Over is 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 contests following a straight-up loss. 
  • Under is 7-3 in Philadelphia’s last 10 contests after scoring 100 points in their previous outing. 
  • Under is 5-0 in Utah’s last five home contests. 
  • Over is 6-1 in Utah’s last seven contests against winning teams. 
  • Under is 5-0 in Utah’s last five contests following a straight-up loss. 

Prop Bets 

Donovan Mitchell over 23.5 points (-118)
Donovan Mitchell has been on a tear this season and is averaging a robust 25.7 points per game. The sharps and early bettors are well aware of this fact, and they have also taken into account Devin Booker dropping 40 on the Sixers the other night. Overnight action on this player prop has moved the juice to -118 at PointsBet. Mitchell is averaging slightly fewer points per game playing at home this season, where he still sits above the posted total at 23.7 points per contest. Mitchell has averaged 19.8 points per game versus Philly in his career, but that number jumped to an elite 27 points per contest in his two 2018 contests against them. He has cleared this total in six of his seven contests this season and is worth a multi-unit wager to do so once again tonight against Philadelphia. 

Bojan Bogdanovic over 16.5 points (-121)
This prop has already hit hard overnight at PointsBet, as the juice on this prop currently sits at -121. Bojan has been operating as the Jazz’ number two option this season and is averaging well over the posted total of 16.5, with 20.2 points per contest on the season. He has cleared this total in four of his six contests this season. He has seen his scoring take a slight dip in home contests, but is still averaging 18.7 points per contest at Vivint Smart Home Arena. The line here is set low enough to give one pause, but the current juice suggests the sharps and early bettors were all over this line. Let’s follow suit for a one-unit play.

Bottom Line

The point spread for this contest has seen some overnight movement, dropping from -1.5 to -2 on Utah. While 65 percent of the public has placed their action on an impressive Utah Jazz team, plus two points on the Sixers offers much more value than the +1.5 line did. The Sixers appear to have a strong chance to win this contest outright, so getting the two-point cushion in what is expected to be a competitive contest with Joel Embiid back in the lineup has massive appeal. Philadelphia is 4-0 against the spread in their last four contests against the Utah Jazz, and they have a strong chance to make that five in a row in one of tonight’s late games.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -2 (-109)

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.