NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (1/17)
Welcome to a four-game NBA slate where I’ll provide my favorite props for your liking. Don’t force prop bets on smaller slates or when you don’t see the value. There is still a lot of basketball to be played. It’s been a successful season so far and I’d love to keep it going. Hopefully, you had ‘successfully betting NBA player props’ as one of your New Year’s resolutions, and we can get a jump start. Here are my favorite plays for tonight’s games.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Below are our favorite player prop bet picks for Tuesday’s slate of NBA games.
Ben Simmons OVER 16.5 Pts + Reb (-120)
Considering the Spurs rep the worst defense in the league, I’m surprised this spread is only at six with Brooklyn’s fourth-ranked offense. The Nets should feast.
With Ben Simmons coming off the injury report after missing one game, I expected his props to be low, but they shouldn’t be this low. In the pace-up spot Brooklyn is in, Simmons should have no problem reaching 16.5 points and boards, especially considering each of his last five games played, he’s brought in at least six rebounds.
Without Kevin Durant, Simmons and Irving will have to step up. His high usage should lead him to some scoring and San Antonio’s sub-par rebounding should open up even more possibilities for Simmons to go over this combo prop.
Jamal Murray UNDER 9.5 Reb + Ast (+110)
For a bit more of a value play, I’m taking the under-combo prop here for Murray.
Obviously, monitor injury news, but Murray is probable with a left ankle sprain. If any report comes out about a minute limit, be sure to jump on the under immediately. Otherwise, I still see it as a solid play. Portland is the third slowest-paced team in the league, under Denver which ranks 23rd. The fewer possessions, the more I like the under here.
Portland is also the sixth-best rebounding team in the country, tied with Denver, so there will be a lot of bodies competing for rebounds down low. Murray is also due for some regression from his assists average as he has been overperforming of late in that category.
Tre Jones UNDER 22.5 Pts + Ast (-130)
On the other side of the Brooklyn-San Antonio game, I simply don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight, highlighted by Jones. The Spurs’ offense is lacking and they are going up against a top-10 defense so I imagine there will be plenty of struggles to score for Jones and Co.
Riding a five-game losing streak, Jones has been averaging 19.1 points per game over the last two weeks. That is quite an inflated number and should come down more to his seasonal average of 13.8 per game.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet identifies this as one of the best plays on the slate with a 75 percent cover probability and a +34 percent expected value.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.