NBA Player Prop Bets, Odds & Picks: Monday (3/3)
Will Klay Thompson make at least four three-pointers for the seventh time in eight games when his Dallas Mavericks battle the Sacramento Kings? How will Tyler Herro perform when his Miami Heat take on the Washington Wizards? And can Onyeka Okongwu build off his most recent rebounding performance when the Atlanta Hawks face the Memphis Grizzlies.
Here are the three best NBA player props for Monday, March 3.
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Monday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
This Season: 39-51 (-6.50 units) | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Klay Thompson Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-110)
Thompson has made at least four three-pointers in three consecutive games. During that stretch, he's knocked down at least 50% of his attempts from behind the arc. Though he's only averaging 3.1 made three-pointers per game, this is a great matchup for him tonight, so it's safe to assume that he will continue his hot shooting for at least one more game.
The Kings are allowing the third-most three-pointers per game this season. The only time that Thompson faced them this season, he went 5-of-10 from deep, despite only playing 26 minutes. Since Thompson is averaging 3.1 threes per game, it'd be nice if the price for this prop was +100 or better. But considering he's made at least four threes in six of seven, and he's entering a favorable matchup, it's worth taking a minor risk on something that only won't hit on a very off night.
Tyler Herro Under 26.5 Points (-110)
Herro is set to face the worst defensive team in the league, so it's hard to believe that I'm backing his Under. Yet, even though he's the Heat's leading scorer, I think he is being seriously overvalued in this matchup. He's averaging 24.1 points per game, and while he's scored at least 22 points in three consecutive games, he's only scored more than 26 in one of those three contests.
Herro hasn't faced the Wizards since November 2, and he scored just 15 points in that game. While he will almost certainly score more than he did in that game, it doesn't make a lot of sense that this total is set more than two points higher than Herro's season average when considering his past performances. And while Herro exploded for 40 twice in February, he also scored 15 or fewer in four games. That inconsistency is what makes it hard to trust him even in a good matchup.
Onyeka Okongwu Under 9.5 Rebounds (-125)
Okongwu is coming off a 13-rebound game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on February 28. The performance ended a streak of four consecutive games with nine or fewer rebounds. Because of his most recent game, Okongwu's rebounding total is set much higher than it should be for this matchup. After all, he's averaging just 8.1 rebounds per game.
The Grizzlies are allowing 53.1 rebounds per game, which ranks 21st in the league. While that certainly leaves something to be desired, the numbers aren't so bad for the Grizzlies that we should expect Okongwu to have a great game against them. The price is a little steep for this Under, but it should be. Don't be surprised to see this total drop to 8.5 before tip-off.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.