NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/29)
Welcome back from a Thanksgiving break of games. I hope you are stuffed and ready to keep winning some bets. It's been an awesome week or so, going 9-0 in my last two articles. The NBA Cup group play continues Friday across a 10-game slate. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so make sure you're getting the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Friday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 6-0 | Season: 48-27
Domantas Sabonis Over 37.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
As Sacramento takes on Portland in a game with a total of around 224 points, I'm taking Domantas Sabonis' combined points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop over in an ideal matchup. The Trail Blazers have a bottom-half-ranked defense. They also have the second-worst offensive rating in the league, meaning there should be plenty of rebound opportunities for the Kings' big man.
Sabonis has averaged 13 boards a game this year and more than that in the last couple of weeks. He's consistently scoring 20+ a night with six assists a game. He projects closer to 42 on this combo prop, making it one of the better options across the board. In a pace-up spot, averaging over 36 minutes a night with a 25% usage rate recently, this is a clear spot to bet on Sabonis.
Donovan Mitchell Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
Donovan Mitchell didn't let me down last time, so I'm going right back to the well with Spida in Atlanta. On Wednesday, Mitchell tallied 30 points with four boards and seven assists. His prop is inflated from that but still, he's scored 28 points a game over the last two weeks. In this matchup, it's well within reason to see him sail over his PRA prop tonight.
The Hawks have allowed the second-most points to opposing shooting guards and the third-most assists. Atlanta's defense ranks in the bottom 10 in the league with a sub-par offense and the second-fastest pace in the league. Considering the game total sits at a whopping 246, I'm scratching to bet a lot of overs here. Mitchell is my go-to.
Ayo Dosunmu Under 17.5 Points + Assists (-115 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
As a Chicago Bulls fan, I may be a little biased here, but I doubt they will be able to keep up offensively against Boston as double-digit underdogs, despite what should be a fast-paced game. Every team is a pace-down spot for Chicago, but Boston ranks sixth-lowest in possession rate in the NBA. They also own a top-10 defense with the second-fewest points allowed to opposing small forwards, a spot where Ayo Dosunmu should slot tonight given the current lineup. He will likely be defended by Jaylen Brown.
When in doubt, I trust the BettingPros prop bet cheat sheet, which gives this prop a 74% chance of hitting - quite the value. If you aren’t using our cheat sheet, get on it. It is one of the biggest reasons I have had such a profitable year. I lean on it for all my betting needs, not just for the NBA. Don't be afraid to fade the former Illinois guard tonight, who's averaged 12 points per game.
Additional Bets to Consider
- Dalton Knecht Under 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points (-102 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- James Harden Under 22.5 Points (-105 on ESPN Bet)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.