NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/10)
Welcome to another day of basketball, as we are deep into the NBA season with the playoffs all but set, with only a couple of games left for most teams. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs.
We have a five-game slate tonight, so we should have a solid handful of NBA player prop bets available. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-1 | Season: 137-98
Tim Hardaway Jr. Under 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
It's a little tough this time of year with most teams locked into their playoff positions to tell what the lineups and/or effort levels will be, so monitor injury news and anything that comes out. This looks to be the 3-6 matchup in the East, so I wanted to target this game, assuming both squads are at full go.
The main note here is how slow the Knicks play, ranking 26th in possession rate this season, which drops to the third-slowest over their last 15 games, compared to Detroit's sixth-fastest pace. Opportunity alone is going to be limited for Tim Hardaway Jr., and he's going up against a top-10 defensive unit. Considering he's only covered this line in half of his last 15 games and 43% of games this season, it's a pretty easy under to go with.
Kyle Kuzma Over 15.5 Points + Assists (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Going up against New Orleans is a treat, considering their already-banged-up starters Jose Alvarado, Bruce Brown and Yves Missi are all questionable. Kyle Kuzma sports a 24% usage rate over his last seven games, averaging over 15 points a night with a pair of assists.
That average is probably due for some soft regression, but Milwaukee is still going up against the second-worst defense with near-identical pacing. I don't expect this to be the game Kuzma comes out with a dud, as he's covered this line in nine of his last 15 games. He should cover again tonight.
Rudy Gobert Under 14.5 Points + Assists (-120 at bet365)
I couldn't pass up on the most important game of the night, and I'm going to zag a bit considering the pace-up spot this game offers. We always see defenses step up when games matter, and I can't imagine Memphis, at home, will be keen on giving up their playoff spot for an NBA Play-In Tournament spot, as they sit just a game ahead of Minnesota with Golden State right in between them in the Western Conference standings.
Rudy Gobert isn't exactly a pure scorer either and has an inflated line thanks to his most recent games, despite averaging 13.4 combined points + assists per game all season. I expect Anthony Edwards to take over. The Grizzlies have allowed the ninth-fewest points to opposing centers over their last 30 games, which is noteworthy, as they are the third-fastest team in that time frame with a sub-par defense. The expected opportunity for Gobert to come away with increased possessions is baked into this line, but I'm not sure it will come in a game like this.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.