NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks, & Predictions: Wednesday (1/10)

by Ryan Coleman |
Jan 10, 2024

Welcome to a 10-game NBA Wednesday slate. It has been a remarkably successful season and I hope to continue that tonight. The All-Star break will be here in no time and teams are shaping up with true identities. Ja Morant's injury leads to loads of questions for the Grizzlies; Washington and Indiana might play the highest-scoring game in the history of basketball, and Draymond Green continues to stay in the news cycle. Stories aside, let's get to my favorite bets for today's NBA slate.

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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

(Last Time: 3-1 |Season: 70-43) Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.

Aaron Nesmith Over 18.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (DraftKings)

I cannot run fast enough to the betting window to bet Pacers players over props in this game. As a reminder the Washington Wizards rank dead last in defensive efficiency with both teams ranking one and two in pace of play. Washington has truly struggled against opposing forwards and rank dead last in rebounding as well. Nesmith has gone over this combo prop recently against significantly better opponents, averaging nearly 13 points over his last two weeks. Yes, the props will be inflated across the board in this game, but there is no way to bet any unders here.

Chet Holmgren Under 17.5 points (FanDuel)

I'll be honest, I have been impressed by Holmgren's play this year, averaging nearly 18 points from all areas of the court. Going up against the Heat is a different beast. Miami has allowed the single lowest points to opposing big men all year. Playing at home will be a different beast for the Thunder and the Gonzaga product has been over performing a bit of late, averaging over 20 points a game in the past two weeks, so he is due for some negative regression. The Heat are a massive pace down spot for the Thunder and I expect Miami to control the pace. This is an easy under play for me.

Lauri Markkanen Under 21.5 points (DraftKings)

I'm surprised at where the total sits for this game and I like the under which means I'm on the prowl for under prop bets to place. This is what I have settled on. It seems the Jazz forward is a bit hit or miss with 30-plus point games or sometimes falling in the teens. Against the Denver Nuggets, I'm banking on a “miss” game. Denver boasts a top-10 defense and is the second slowest team in the league, bringing down a speedy Jazz team. This prop is at or near plus odds and I simply don't see the opportunity there for Markkanen to get into the 20's.

Tre Jones Over 12.5 points (DraftKings)

I know Detroit has been an easy target of late but hey, they have been truly terrible. Of course, San Antonio hasn't been great either but with Jones hot right now coming off two 18 point outings, this is the perfect time to build on his momentum. Both teams run the ball with a top-10 pace of play and both teams struggle defensively, to put it mildly. Detroit has allowed over 27 points a game to opposing point guards, second most in the NBA. I don't exactly expect Jones to hit those kind of numbers here, but he should clear 13 points in a game where I absolutely love the over in every which way.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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