NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (12/4)
Welcome to a six-game NBA slate as we find more prop bets for your liking. Last time out brought us back down to earth but we are still soring on the season with money made. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so make sure you're getting the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-4 | Season: 50-31
LeBron James Over 20.5 Points (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
At this point, it almost just feels like the sportsbooks are begging you to bet on LeBron James’ scoring prop overs, and I gladly will. I try to find any opportunity I can get to make such a bet and I can't wait to tell my grandkids how I was able to bet on the greatest basketball player to ever play to score 21 points in a given night.
James is projected for 25 on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet - a tool you should prioritize using for all your betting needs - and I am inclined to agree. He's averaging 22 points a game on the season and is due for some positive regression based on recent numbers, so it is a good time to buy the dip. Miami's defense is solid but it isn't as scary as old, falling outside the top 10. I expect a solid performance tonight from James in what should be a close and meaningful game.
Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
For someone who already averages over 10 points a night scoring this year, I am surprised by this line, even against Boston. Tim Hardaway Jr. has covered this combo prop in nine of his last 14 games and three of his last four. He's playing a consistent 27 minutes a game. Considering how big of an underdog Detroit is, the Pistons might be hucking up plenty of threes and scheming additional attempts for Hardaway Jr., who already averages over five attempts from beyond the arc a night.
Hardaway Jr. is coming off a 15-point outing against Milwaukee and covered this line last game against Boston. It's a bit of a zag to an expected zig facing Boston but they are a bit banged up here and a backdoor cover is well within the realm of possibilities.
Pascal Siakam Under 31.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-113 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
This isn't so much fading Pascal Siakam as it is just not trusting there to be enough opportunity for him to reach this combo prop. The Pacers' frontcourt piece is averaging right around 30 combined points + rebounds + assists on the season - a number slightly lower in the last week or two of play.
Brooklyn plays at the single slowest pace and reps an average defense while ranking in the top 10 in limiting opposing power forward scoring. It's not as if Siakam should struggle a ton but I don't expect him to dominate either. This line should be projected closer to 28. On the road against such a slow team, I'm happy to fade here.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.