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NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (10/27)

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The NBA is back! Nothing is better than a fresh betting slate for you to build up your bankroll all year. I will be here all season every Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to give you the best player props for the day. Remember, it’s day two of a long NBA season. Don’t go betting your entire paycheck on any single prop, even if it’s incredible value. With the season just getting underway there will be a lot of learning about each team and players usage but that’s all part of the fun. Here are my best bets for tonight’s action.

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.

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Friday’s NBA Best Player Prop Bets

Last Time: 2-1
Season: 5-3

Domantas Sabonis Over 24.5 Pts + Ast (-125, DraftKings)

Let’s have a little fun, shall we?

With the highest over/under total on the slate in a game that will be a big pace-up spot for the Kings there are plenty of opportunities for over galore tonight. The Kings had the most efficient offense last year and after starting with a 130-point effort at Utah, their offense is primed to continue performing well. 

What better team to do so against than the Warriors? Not only were they the fastest team in the NBA last year but their defense is middling and I trust Sacramento to have the advantage at home.

There are a lot of choices to go with here depending on how you’re feeling but I see Sabonis as the best choice. He started the season with a 22-point, five-assist effort against the Jazz and averaged 19 and seven last year. The 24.5 combo prop is too low with plenty of opportunity for each Kings player to get a slice of the pie tonight.     

Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 points (-110, DraftKings) 

While this might be one of my least favorite bets to make – going against Jokic – the total points is simply too high tonight in Memphis. 

The total tonight is one of the lowest of the slate around 224. While Memphis may be a pace-up spot for Denver, Memphis’ still was a top-three defense last year in terms of efficiency.  

After a 29-point effort in the season-opener, it’s hard to reason not to blindly bet Jokic’s overs. Still, he averaged 24.5 points per game last year and Memphis is not a spot where that projected point total should be higher. This will be a close game with Denver as a 4.5-point favorite but I’m deciding to trust the Memphis defense tonight.

Kyle Lowry Under 8.5 points (-105, DraftKings) 

Now 8.5 may not seem like a high number but after only taking one shot attempt in 32 minutes against Detroit, I will be jumping on the unders until his usage changes.

Boston could be a better team to bounce back against too. A revamped Celtics team ranked second in defensive efficiency last year and led the league in defensive rebound percentage so there won’t be many second-chance opportunities for Lowry and Co.

Miami is also one of the slowest-paced teams in the league and the Celtics don’t exactly push the pace. It will be interesting to see what happens with Lowry on this Heat team and I imagine he will bounce back but he has lowered his field goal attempts and points per game average in each of the last two years so I don’t expect him to exactly explode offensively tonight.  

Other Bets:

  • Kyrie Irving Under 38.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-125, PointsBet)
  • Andrew Wiggins Over 17.5 Pts + Ast (-120, DraftKings)
  • Ziaire Williams Under 16.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-140, PointsBet)
  • Marcus Smart Over 1.5 steals (+150, BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.