NBA Play-In Tournament Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/18)
Here we goooo. We have finally made it to the NBA Playoffs, and man, am I excited to finish up the Play-Ins and get to some series games. The season has been fun, and we got some Goliaths at the top of the food chain, but these are lining up to be a very exciting playoffs. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend tonight. We have a pair of teams playing tonight with some lower totals than usual. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
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Friday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-2 | Season: 146-103 | Each bet will be a single unit, unless otherwise specified.
Tyler Herro Over 35.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-118 at FanDuel)
Last time out, it worked out just fine going with Herro's props, and if you took my advice, you may have cashed some alts as well. His PAR prop was at 35.5 last time, and he scored 38 points alone. So I guess pure scoring alts would have been the way to go. Either way, I'm going right back to the well as Miami looks to earn the right to lose in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Atlanta has been the third-fastest-paced team in the NBA, with the 20th-ranked defense, over their last 15 games. On the season, they aren't much better at 18th, so it's not like they are on a dry spell of sorts. The Hawks have allowed the seventh most PAR to opposing point guards, and while Herro's 30 points a game of late doesn't scream sustainable, I still think his 32 percent usage rate does, especially in a game like tonight. He will be the go-to scorer for Miami and get a lot of looks. It would be great if Miami is playing from behind and the former Kentucky guard needs to put the pedal to the metal, because the shot attempts will be there without question. Combine that with his five boards and five assists a game averages, and it's a clear Over.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 19.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)
I've trusted the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet with my life this season, and I'm not going to stop now. The Sheet projects Jackson Jr. at over 22 points, and despite the juiced line, I'm riding it. Dallas may be coming off a solid defensive performance against Sacramento, but to finish the year, they ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency while still maintaining a pace nearly as fast as Memphis. The Grizzlies return home, where Jackson sees a scoring bump, and he has seen ample minutes of late, which has translated to additional scoring. He saw the court for nearly 40 minutes against Golden State and should see similar minutes tonight. With the pace of this game, I'm leaning to take a lot of Overs as I'm surprised the total is only 221.
Trae Young Under 42.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-120 at bet365)
Now, a player I'm riding the Under on is Trae Young. This is for sure a zag to my usual tactics and strategy, but the number has simply gotten too high against the league's fourth-best defense over their final 15 games. Miami will also slow down this game immensely with the fourth-slowest pace of play, so the opportunity alone will be stifled. Sure, Young has a high usage rate similar to Herro, but his opportunities will be limited compared to his averages, and he's already only covered this line in 48 percent of games, a coin flip against the standard opponent. In a pace-down spot against a red-hot defense, I'm happy fading him going off.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.