NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/13)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break behind us. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. We have a nine-game slate tonight so we have plenty of options for player props. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 120-87
Jordan Poole Under 28.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-120 at DraftKings)
Detroit has been a pleasant surprise this season and they've kept that up of late, going 8-3 since the All-Star break. This is in large part because of their third-ranked defense in that time frame. Despite the fast pace of the Pistons in that same timeline, it's still a pace-down spot for the Wizards on the season. Specifically against opposing point guards, Detroit brings out the clamps. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder allow fewer PAR to opposing point guards. If you only consider recent games, they're still allowing the fourth lowest to opposing guards. Poole has only covered this prop in half of his games. The Wizards offense ranks 29th since the All-Star break and I don't expect this to be the one where they break out of any slump. Feel free to pick any Under here but my choice is Poole.
Cam Thomas Over 25.5 Pts + Ast (-115 at DraftKings)
Thomas has been playing well lately, with a bump in usage rate of 34.4 percent. He's healthy now and is coming off a 27-point effort against Cleveland and against the Bulls, he gets an even bigger bump. Chicago owns the third-fastest pace of play with the 25th-ranked defense this season. In the last 15 games, the Bulls have allowed the third most points to opposing shooting guards. They won't have much defense here and the usage rate is at an all-time high for Thomas. The thing is, this line isn't even that high. The Brooklyn guard has covered this spread in 58 percent of games this season. This is going to be a high-possession game, in addition to what should be an efficient outing across the board for Brooklyn. Thomas went for 32 points earlier this season against the Bulls so I expect a similar output and am riding the over.
Luka Doncic Under 31.5 Pts (-112 at FanDuel)
I don't love going against one of the best basketball players currently in the NBA but you can't always go with the basic play. Luka has covered this line in just 29 percent of games this season and there's no reason this game should be so high. Doncic is currently dealing with ankle soreness that can limit him and even if it doesn't, this will be an uphill battle for the Lakers and Co. Milwaukee has come out of the All-Star break with the fourth-best defense in the league and has limited point guards to the fourth fewest points in their last 15 games. Doncic is due for regression in the scoring department and I expect tonight's road game to be the start of that.
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.