NBA Player Props & Bets: Friday (10/30)
The NBA is officially back. I'll be here every Friday, Saturday and Sunday with the best NBA player props for the day. We already had an explosive start to the season, and there are so many storylines to be excited about.
As always, keep an eye on any potential news and lineup announcements. You never know who might pop up on the injury report. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay current with the latest updates. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, even in the playoffs, so ensure you get the best value.
I took a big swing and a miss last time out, but it's a long season. I had the right ideas but missed on the right pieces. No time like the present to bounce back. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Bets
Last Time: 1-1 | This Season: 3-5 | Last Season: 92-76
Cooper Flagg Over 29.5 Points + Assists (-104 at Novig)
It's been a fun start to the season for Cooper Flagg and Co. with Kyrie Irving back in the fold, and I actually like the Mavericks to hand Houston its first loss of the season in group play tonight. The Mavericks’ offense has been a top-10 unit, and Flagg has averaged 25 points and seven assists in four games.
Obviously, it's a small sample size, but I'm trying to get in early on what I think is coming. Just last week, to start the season, Flagg safely covered this line at Houston and did so against Oklahoma City as well. The Rockets are getting respect defensively, as they should, but the Duke product lines up well with the holes in their unit, and I expect we consistently see the line higher than what it is tonight as we progress through the season.
Paul Reed Under 26.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-109 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Jalen Duren is out, which meant a massive minutes boost for Paul Reed earlier this week against the Hornets, and he still only managed 16 points and four boards with zero assists. Of course, this combo prop line makes sense to inflate with the added minutes, but this isn't an offense that runs through Reed, and his usage rate is lower than it was a year ago in the early goings of the season.
When injuries happen, players thrust into additional usage are bound to fail, and the prop gets hyper-inflated before settling after more data. This is the single best value prop projection on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, and I'm standing by it. If you don't use the cheat sheet, you're missing out; it’s been a vital resource for all my betting needs over the last four seasons.
Jayson Tatum Over 34.5 Points + Assists (-120 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
After a dud of a start in Detroit, Jayson Tatum has been trying to compensate for his limited play by keeping his usage rate over 30% in all three of the following games. He didn't cover the last time these two teams met, but he also played only 27 minutes.
Of course, there is always blowout risk, but it's hard to bank on that in consecutive matchups, and this is simply too good an opportunity to pass up. I understand props will always be inflated against the Chicago Bulls, but I don't think they will ever be enough, at least not anytime soon.
The Bulls are already the league’s second-worst defensive unit, play at the fastest pace and gave up 134 points to the Celtics last time out. They've let opposing forwards dominate, and I expect Tatum to have his way with some additional run tonight.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.