NBA Player Props & Bets: Friday (3/6)
There will be seven games played across the NBA tonight, and certainly no shortage of options to consider given the solid slate. One thing to keep in mind is that most teams are either on their first or second leg of a back-to-back. Here are some of our favorite NBA player props for Friday, March 6th.
Jayson Tatum 3+ Assists (-132)
Normally, upon a return from such a substantial injury (Achilles tear), logic calls for an under in this situation. Having said that, this line appears to be way too low, even with a projected minutes restriction in the first game back for Jayson Tatum.
It's difficult to envision Tatum playing 20+ minutes tonight and wanting to attack the rim constantly. On the other hand, it's easy to sell yourself on the notion that he may be a little more passive in his initial return. While there is some concern about how much time on the floor the star forward will see this evening, chances are it's enough to accumulate three assists.
We wouldn't fault you at all for taking the under on Tatum’s points + assists + rebounds combo prop, or to bet strictly on his points prop, where he would need 13 points to hit the over after not playing in almost 10 months. The three assists threshold just screams way too low. Unless it jumps to four, this is the route we are considering most in Tatum’s return.
Brandon Miller 22+ Points (-125)
The Charlotte Hornets are surging as we head towards the NBA playoffs. Charlotte has won 16 out of its last 20 games, and Brandon Miller is contributing to that success in fantastic fashion. The Miami Heat took the floor just last night, which could open up some extra opportunities for Miller to score in this contest.
Miller is averaging 20.8 points per game, on 37.7% shooting from beyond the arc. The three-point rate has improved over the last 10 contests - bringing the success rate to 41.2% through that span. Miller is also scoring 22.9 points per game in the previous 10 matchups.
The Hornets forward averages 21.7 points when playing at home. He has scored at least 22 points in six out of the last 10 games played, and is averaging 21.8 points in his last 20 home games. Miller may incur a sluggish Miami team due to scheduling, which absolutely adds to our confidence in this selection.
Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 Points (-115)
The Nuggets superstar center has been nothing short of brilliant following the All-Star break. Nikola Jokic is averaging 28 points over that span, with four of those contests resulting in 30+ points. Jokic played 38 minutes last night, so despite the hot hand as of late, we are going to take the under on his points prop.
Jokic has been on quite a scoring tear as of late. Nevertheless, he matches up with a tough New York defense ranked fifth in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game (110.8). Jokic needed two additional overtime periods to exceed 27.5 points the last time these two teams met. We simply do not see this contest going into overtime this time around.
Jokic played 45 minutes in that contest. After playing 38 minutes last night, the 28 points needed seem like a tough task. He is averaging 26 points in the last five games against New York, and has fallen short of 28 points in two out of the previous three contests. This has all the makings of the sweatiest option this evening.
Both Kevin Durant & Reed Sheppard 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-142)
This selection is easily the most juiced-up that we have had in a while. Yet, with such a strange scheduling layout for the last few days, it makes complete sense to jump on this Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard combo prop. Three made baskets from deep for each player results in a +240 return if you are feeling ambitious. Two or more threes is the safer route.
Durant has successfully made at least two three-pointers in eight consecutive contests, while Sheppard has done so on seven consecutive occasions. Sheppard knocked in six three-pointers last night against Golden State in an overtime win. The young guard has made 31 three-point shots over the previous six games.
The Portland Trail Blazers are allowing 13.2 three-pointers each contest, and conceded 15 three-pointers in their last contest. Durant and Reed are shooting at an extremely successful rate and face a Portland squad allowing almost 40 points per game from above the perimeter. We hate the juice, but love the possibility of success for this selection.
H2H Player Three-Pointers Made: Austin Reaves vs. Andrew Nembhard (-103)
With LeBron James most likely set to miss this contest, Austin Reaves is in a fantastic position to hit more three-point baskets than Andrew Nembhard. As of now, there is no official word on James being out. However, with a tough matchup against New York on Sunday and the back-to-back scheduling, it just stands to reason that James will not be on the floor tonight.
Austin Reaves is connecting on 2.4 three-pointers each game. Recently, the volume of attempts has slipped somewhat, although things change for the better when James is not in uniform. In 13 games without James, Reaves averaged 29.2 points and 2.8 three-pointers.
As for Nembhard, the guard out of Gonzaga is averaging 1.9 three-pointers per game on the season. Things seemingly get more difficult for Nembhard due to issues involving soreness in his neck and lower back.
When playing on the road, the Pacers guard averages 1.7 shots from beyond the arc. The boost without James, combined with Nembhard being less efficient from deep when playing on the road, makes this a very easy selection.
Enjoy the games tonight. Best of luck with your picks.