NBA Player Props & Bets: Thursday (1/1)
Happy New Year! Welcome to another day of NBA player props and bets, as we hunker down for the cold after the holiday season. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have a solid five-game slate today, so we have plenty of options. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 36-27
Michael Porter Jr. Under 34.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Michael Porter Jr. is already questionable for tonight, so obviously monitor his injury status, but even if he's full-go, this is a line that's too high against Houston. The Rockets’ defense hasn't exactly been the most elite unit, but they are still a top-10 defense. Across the season, they’ve also been one of the slowest teams in the league, which is why the total is set at a simple 222 points.
Porter has a 30% usage rate this year, but that number has taken a hit recently for a Brooklyn team that has also played at one of the slower rates in the NBA. He's gone over the total for this combo prop in four of the last five games, which has inflated the line, but it's too high. Now is the time to zag. No team has allowed fewer combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing forwards than the Houston Rockets. Porter won’t have the easiest time tonight. I expect this total to continue dropping, so make sure you jump on this quickly, as you're getting a friendly price.
Lauri Markkanen Under 28.5 Points + Assists (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
For another questionable player, we have Lauri Markkanen facing off against the Los Angeles Clippers. L.A. doesn't boast the best defense, but they play even slower than the Rockets. Considering the Jazz play at one of the fastest paces, this is going to be a big pace-down spot for the Utah forward. This is also a line that makes less sense with Markkanen dealing with his knee contusion.
Even fully healthy, Markkanen has covered the line in fewer than half of his last 15 games. With the lack of possessions, he should struggle to cover the line again. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects this combo prop closer to 22, and I agree. The cheat sheet has been a holy grail of betting and covers all your needs across different sports. If you haven't signed up, then you're only losing out on additional profits across your portfolio. On the road, as double-digit underdogs, Marrkanen is a fade.
Norman Powell Under 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I hate to ring in the New Year with three unders, but that's the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Maybe everyone is just really excited to bet overs, and that's pushed these numbers too high. Either way, Norman Powell's combined points +assists + rebounds number is another example of an over-inflated line.
The Heat guard hasn't covered this line in five of his last six games. Bam Adebayo is back healthy in this lineup, and they're facing a Pistons team with the second-best defensive unit in basketball. I get the bump with Pelle Larsson out in addition to Tyler Herro, but those aren't exactly new concepts here, and the Pistons will only slow down Miami's breakneck pace. Powell has played close to this line recently, but has also been in much friendlier matchups than on the road against the second-best defense in the league.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.