NBA Player Props & Bets: Thursday (1/29)
Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting as we hunker down for the cold after the holiday season. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
Last time out, we had a solid 1-2 sweep with Cooper Flagg ending up missing the game. We've been profitable during the season, and I plan on continuing that trend in this article. Today marks a solid eight-game slate, so we have a plethora of options. Either way, let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-0 | This Season: 48-38
Bobby Portis Jr. Over 29.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
With no Giannis Antetokounmpo in the lineup, handicapping the Milwaukee Bucks becomes a lot more difficult. But that means there is an opportunity to exploit mispriced odds, especially when it comes to playing the Washington Wizards. The Wizards rank positively in every metric you could ask for when it comes to betting opponent props.
They are second-to-last in defense efficiency for the whole season and over the last 10 days. Their pace is a top-six rate in the league and top-10 over recent play. For a cherry on top, the Wizards allow the second most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing power forwards, and Bobby Portis Jr. is playing his best basketball. It helps that there's no Antetokounmpo, but Portis gets a massive usage bump when the Bucks are without their star player. It's an inflated prop, but I still think it doesn't represent his full potential for where he can get on this combo prop tonight.
Domantas Sabonis Over 20.5 Points + Assists (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
Next up tonight, despite being double-digit underdogs, I'm riding the Sacramento Kings and Domantas Sabonis to go with it. Obviously, he's working his way back from his meniscus injury, but Sabonis appears to be back to full play, seeing the court for 33 minutes against New York on Tuesday. I'm deciding to be early on the big man against the 76ers before his props get too high.
This is a line Sabonis frequently covered before his injury, and this is a bet that he's back to form. It also helps that over their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 22nd defensively. Sabonis is due for his usage to return to his 23% usage rate and sail over this combo prop.
Jamal Murray Under 35.5 Points + Assists (-125 at Hard Rock Bet)
Finally, I'm fading Jamal Murray as Brooklyn comes to Denver to take on the Nuggets. While Brooklyn's defense isn't anything to write home about, the biggest draw here to fade the Denver guard is the Nets' pace. Brooklyn comes in dead last when it comes to possession rate, and it's only gotten slower over the past month of play.
Over their last 30 games, no team has allowed fewer points to opposing point guards than Brooklyn. Combine that with Murray dealing with a hamstring issue, and you can get why I'm fading Murray. I don't expect his ailment to limit him too much, but this prop is priced as if he's fully healthy already, so it can only help the argument here. It's a bit scary to fade Murray's usage since Nikola Jokic's injury, but against the Nets, I feel comfortable riding the under.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.