NBA Player Props & Bets: Thursday (12/11)
Welcome to another day of NBA player props as we hunker down in the cold this holiday season and get back to regular-season action after NBA Cup play. We've been steady of late as we're green on the season, and I intend to keep it that way. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We only have two games today, which limits our options, but that has never been an issue before. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-0 | This Season: 29-10
James Harden Under 32.5 Points + Assists (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
We start with James Harden facing off against his team of old in Houston. With a total of 220 points, you can see why I'm in on the under for Harden's props. The Rockets have been bolstered by their defense all season, ranking second-best in the NBA only behind the juggernaut Thunder. They're also only behind Oklahoma City in limiting scoring from opposing guards. F
When Harden misses on scoring and assists props, he really misses. If you're looking to bet the under, feel free to bet some alternates. Houston's pace of play is the fourth-slowest in the league. Even if Harden has a good game, his opportunities are going to be limited. Usually, I would expect the line to be lowered in this situation on the road against the Rockets, but it still is a bit too high.
Nikola Jokic Over 51.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
If there is any player I will ever try to find an excuse to bet overs on, it's Nikola Jokic. He is a menace. Jokic has covered this line in over half of the games this season, and I thought it would have been higher given the matchup. The Kings have allowed the third most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing centers this season, and will pace up Denver a lot with their eighth-fastest pace of play.
Maxime Raynaud should have his hands full tonight, and Jokic has actually performed better on the road this year. It also helps that Sacramento has been a bottom-five defensive unit this year and gets no better at home. Jokic is lining up to have a massive game, so I may even throw some alternates and lay a few units on this line.
Jaylen Brown Under 35.5 Points + Assists (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
Milwaukee has become a difficult team to handicap against without Giannis Antetokounmpo. In their last 10 games (Antetokounmpo played in four of those matches), they're 2-8 with a 23rd-ranked defense but a 24th-ranked pace of play. Those numbers aren't actually much different than their season-long averages, but everyone seems to be treating this Bucks team as a complete downfall defensively.
That's why I'm on the under because I think this is an example of an overinflated line. After returning from injury, Jaylen Brown had back-to-back 30-point performances. He's capable of replicating that any given night, but the total is only 225, and I think it will be more of a problem of opportunity than talent.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.