NBA Player Props & Bets: Thursday (4/23)
Welcome to another day of NBA player props. If you aren't taking advantage of the BettingPros prop tools, you're missing out, but there's no time like the present for what should be a very fun playoffs. It's been a profitable year, and I plan on continuing that into the postseason.
As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay current with the latest updates. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
It was a relatively straightforward day yesterday, so here's to hoping for more upsets tonight. Anyways, let's get to the best bets of the day. Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-1 | This Season: 82-68
Jonathan Kuminga Under 20.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)
The Hawks and Knicks open the night with Game 3 of a series that is now tied at one apiece after Atlanta stole Game 2 on the road. The Knicks are only laying a point as the road favorite, which tells you how tight things have gotten. With a total of 215 in another big pace-down spot, I'm fading Jonathan Kuminga.
Kuminga has averaged just 12.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game over the final two months of play for a combined 19.3 points + rebounds + assists, which is already a tick under this number. The under has cashed in 10 of his 15 games this year, and the Knicks rank seventh in limiting opposing forwards’ combined points + rebounds + assists.
We saw the script in Game 1 when Kuminga managed only 13 combined points + rebounds + assists in 27 minutes against this defense. Game 2 was a bit of a bounce-back performance with 24 combined points + rebounds + assists in 34 minutes, but he needed 19 points to get there, and I am not banking on him scoring efficiently again.
With the Knicks’ defense locking in and Atlanta likely leaning more on their stars in a close home game, this number is just a little too high.
James Harden Over 27.5 Points + Assists (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Cavaliers head north up 2-0 and are still favored by a bucket in Toronto, which feels about right for a team taking care of business so far. James Harden has been the steady hand running this offense, and he has cleared this number in both games of the series with room to spare.
Since coming to Cleveland, Harden has had to share the workload more, but he still averaged 21.4 points and 7.4 assists in the final two months of play, still ahead of the current prop line. The Cavaliers have no reason to take their foot off the gas with a chance to go up 3-0 on the road, and Harden has commanded a 30% usage rate in his two playoff games. He's covered this line in all three games against the Raptors this year, and there's no reason to say he can't do so again tonight, even on the road.
Julius Randle Over 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Game 3 of Nuggets-Timberwolves brings us back to Minnesota with the series tied 1-1 and Denver only 2-point road favorites. Julius Randle is an engine for this Timberwolves offense and has been a combo prop monster all year. He has covered this line in nine of his last 15 games and five out of his last seven, including the playoffs.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects him closer to 33, which offers a lot of value. We just watched him crush the over in Game 2 with a combined 39 points + rebounds + assists, and even his Game 1 stat line of 25 came on a quiet 16-point shooting night that he is unlikely to repeat. The Nuggets were hot to end the year, but the defense still ranked outside the top half of the league over their final 15 games, while the road splits are worse.
The 234-point total is the highest on the slate. Of course, Anthony Edwards is going to dominate the usage rate, but Randle is still capable of taking a brunt of the workload, especially if Edwards is still not at 100%. Randle has the volume, the matchup and now the home crowd. Give me the over.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.