NBA Player Props & Bets: Thursday (5/7)
Welcome to another day of NBA player props. If you aren't taking advantage of the BettingPros prop tools, you're missing out, but there's no time like the present for what should be a very fun playoffs.
It's been a profitable year, and I plan on continuing that into the postseason. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to keep up with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
Let's get to the best prop bets for today’s slate. Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-0 | This Season: 88-72
James Harden Over 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
After competing for most of Game 1, Detroit extended the lead late to win 111-101. Now we have Game 2, where 3.5 points favor the Pistons with a 216-point total.
After tallying 37 combined points + assists + rebounds to open the series, I'm surprised this spread isn't higher. Usually, I follow the law of averages and expect regression, but James Harden has covered this line in five out of eight playoff games so far. He commanded a 33% usage rate to open the series on Tuesday.
While I don't expect his usage to be that high this time around, his floor should comfortably be over 25% tonight. Combine that with 36+minutes on the court, and even against a tough Detroit defense, that should be plenty for him to hit the over.
Marcus Smart Under 17.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-113 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
After winning Game 1 108-90, Oklahoma City is once again favored by 16 points tonight at home. They're equally as likely to win by 30+ points as they are to lose. My general strategy is to fade the Lakers here. I believe they can steal one at home, but not with how Oklahoma City is set up right now.
The Thunder are too loaded across the board, where I won't be surprised by Los Angeles being held to fewer than 90 points tonight. In Game 1, Smart tallied seven assists, which is four more than he averaged all season. Against the Thunder’s defense, that will not happen twice.
In the final four games in the first round versus the Rockets, Smart never recorded a usage rate above 21%, so his higher rate in Game 1 will be tough to repeat. After going over this combo prop last time out, I am fading Smart tonight.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.