NBA Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (1/7)
Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting as we hunker down for the cold after the holiday season. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news.
The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have a massive 12-game slate today, so we have plenty of options. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-1 | This Season: 36-28
LaMelo Ball Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-114 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I understand Charlotte isn't exactly the most trustworthy team, and LaMelo Ball is not the most trustworthy player, but it feels like the Hornets name brings down their reputation, along with their 13-23, across sportsbooks more than the underlying metrics.
Their offense ranks just outside of the top 10 this season in efficiency and ranks second-best over their last 10 games. Ball has covered this line in six of his last eight games, and the Hornets get a Toronto team at home. While the Raptors’ defense is a solid unit, I don't think they're scary enough to justify how low this prop currently sits.
Ball's usage is a solid 31% over his last six games. Both teams miss enough where there will be plenty of opportunity for boards, while the Charlotte guard takes so many shots that pure opportunity alone will get him over the line here, even with a 230-point total.
Lauri Markkanen Under 24.5 Points (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
We went under Lauri Markkanen last time, and then he didn't play, so this is retribution for that. The Jazz forward is off the injury report and ready to go against Oklahoma City. I know I've said this before, but the Thunder’s defense has been unbelievable this year. The difference in defensive rating between Oklahoma City in first and the Detroit Pistons in second is the same between the Pistons and the Hawks at 16th. That's the gap the Thunder have as the best defense in the league.
Usually, that makes me wary of betting opponent unders, but considering Markkanen failed to cover this line in two of his last three games against inferior opponents, it's clear this line should be lowered by a few points. Ace Bailey is questionable. Otherwise, the Jazz are healthy again, which should lead to fewer looks for the veteran Markkanen. He took 27 shot attempts the other day against Golden State, but is likely going to take around 15-17 field-goal attempts tonight. That simply won't do against this Oklahoma City defense.
Luka Doncic Under 35.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's a little scary to bet this prop because Luka Doncic is most certainly due, but his recent history is hard to overlook. The Lakers guard has failed to cover this line in 11 of his last 15 games and six of his last seven, covering by one point. LeBron James might sit tonight due to load management, which might change things, but the under still feels like a fine play.
This Spurs defense is a consistent top-10 unit, and the Lakers’ offense takes a hit offensively, as does Doncic, scoring a full five points fewer per game away from Los Angeles this season. There will be a game where Doncic goes off for 50 points soon, but tonight is not that night.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.