NBA Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (11/19)
It's another day of NBA play. We have a good first handful of data under our belts. We hit a bump the last time out, but we still started the season strong. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. We have a good handful of games today, so there are plenty of options to cover. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Season: 174-125 | This Season: 17-12 | Last Time: 0-3
LaMelo Ball Over 35.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at Hard Rock Bet)
It hasn't been the brightest season to start for LaMelo Ball, who's only played in eight of the team's 14 games to begin the season. He's struggled to stay healthy throughout his young career, with 47 games being his most in any given season.
Still, tonight is not a night to doubt the Charlotte guard. Ball is off the injury report and managed 28 minutes when he played last time out against Toronto, despite an inefficient outing. Despite lower minutes this year, his assists and rebounds are up, so he's becoming a more dynamic player while still having the ability to score big numbers on any given night.
Charlotte is favored tonight in Indianapolis, which you cannot say often, and there should be plenty of offense with a 237.5 point total. I'm buying the bounce back for Ball here, and you should too before his props inflate again.
Julius Randle Over 34.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-125 at BetMGM)
Another prop I'm confused by is Julius Randle's combined points + assists + rebounds, as Washington comes into town to take on Minnesota at home. The Timberwolves forward has gone 11-3 covering this line this season and now gets to face arguably the best matchup out there.
The Wizards’ defense ranks dead last, their pace of play is fourth-fastest and they allow the fourth-most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing power forwards. Randle's usage rate has climbed this season to 28%, and last time out against Dallas was the only time he has scored fewer than 19 points in a game. I don't expect that to happen again tonight.
To go with it, he's averaged seven boards and six assists a game, so there's a clear floor here to go with the ceiling of playing at home against the Washington Wizards. It's a juiced line, so you're welcome to go to 35.5, but I prefer to pay for 34.5 on the combo prop.
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 29.5 Points + Assists (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
This line opened at 30.5 and has already dipped a bit, so I'd try to get on it quickly. I get why this line is elevated, given the current roster construction of the Knicks, but it's still too high. The Mavericks have hung their hat on defense this year with the fifth-best unit despite going 4-11.
Even without Anthony Davis tonight, the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Karl-Anthony Towns closer to 26 on this combo prop. I don't want to say the cheat sheet is never wrong, but it has been a big reason for my success over the last few years, and I highly advise investing in a tool that will only improve your betting. I expect the Knicks to struggle with scoring across the board here tonight, despite being the favorites.
Additional Prop Bets
- Russell Westbrook Under 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-117 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Jerami Grant Under 26.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-114 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Tyrese Maxey Under 38.5 Points + Assists (-110 at Hard Rock Bet)
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.