NBA Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (2/25)
Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting. With the All-Star break behind us, we look to the playoff race on the horizon. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
We had some injuries and foul trouble derail our props last week, but we're still positive on the season. With a big slate yesterday, we're treated to a smaller, yet healthy six-game slate tonight. As always, there are still players with questionable tags across the board, so make sure to stay on top of the news. Anyways, let's get to the best NBA prop bets of the day.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | This Season: 58-48
DeMar DeRozan Over 20.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (+100 at BetMGM)
Going against everything your mind tells you when making a player prop bet usually is a good sign that it might be the right call. The Kings finally ended their dreadful losing streak, but their numbers have been awful since the New Year. Their offense ranks 26th over their last 15 games, and they come into Houston as a 15-point underdog with a game total of 223 points. Not a lot of projected scoring for the Kings in this one. Which is exactly why I'm zagging against the set line.
Houston's defense has taken a step back recently defensively, ranking ninth over their last 10 games compared to their season-long ranking of sixth. DeMar DeRozan has seen a bit of a bump in usage over his last five games and should play over 29 minutes tonight. He has covered this line in four straight games and sailed over it (30 combined points + rebounds + assists) during these two teams’ earlier meeting back in January, where the Kings pulled off an upset as double-digit underdogs.
I'm not saying that will happen again, but DeRozan will get his looks, and the prop line is too low. It might continue that trend as we get closer to lock, so I'd wait and shop around for anything below 20 on this combo prop.
Cade Cunningham Under 43.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-130 at BetMGM)
I know this is a juiced line, but this number is all over the place right now, with it as low as 40.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. With Oklahoma City playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, it's up in the air right now who we will see on the court for the Thunder. Still, I trust their defense.
Even with the injuries persisting for the Thunder, they remain a top-five defensive unit with a bottom-seven pace of play over their last 10 games. This is a line that Cade Cunningham hasn't covered in nine of his last 15 games. Even as 6.5-point favorites, I don't expect him to tonight either. He's capable of going off at any time, skewing his seasonal averages, but his median outcome performance is below this line.
Against a team like Oklahoma City, even at less than full strength, I'm happy fading the Oklahoma State product, even during his MVP push. This line will fluctuate, but I'd bet it down to 41.5.
De'Aaron Fox Over 16.5 Points (-104 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
To close out the article, I'm betting De'Aaron Fox handles the not-so-stark Toronto Raptors defense and puts some points on the board. The Spurs guard has averaged 32 minutes a night with 19 points a game on the season, and I'm not sure why sportsbooks would set this so much lower than that at near even odds for 17+ points.
The Raptors have fallen out of the top 10 in defensive rankings over their last 15 games. In that same time frame, Toronto has allowed the fourth-most points to opposing point guards. It may be a small sample size, but Fox appears to be playing additional minutes of late, going over 30 minutes in all but one of the Spurs’ last 15 non-blowout games.
This isn't exactly a close spread, but with this game on the road, where Fox has averaged nearly 20 points a night, I imagine Toronto can put up enough of a fight where the Spurs guard will get plenty of run to go over his points total.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.