NBA Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (3/4)
Welcome to another day of NBA prop betting. With the All-Star break behind us, we look to the playoff race on the horizon. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay up-to-date with the latest news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
With Kawhi Leonard missing his game, we went 1-1 last time out and continued our winning season. With a big slate yesterday, we're treated to a smaller, yet healthy six-game slate tonight. As always, there are still players with questionable tags across the board, so make sure to stay on top of the news. Anyways, let's get to the best prop bets of the day.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-1 | This Season: 61-50
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
It's not often I take overs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but this is a special case. Karl-Anthony Towns has covered this line in 11 of his last 15 games, and the players who back up the deadly Oklahoma City defensive metrics are either questionable or out tonight.
Oklahoma City is playing the second leg of a back-to-back on the road. While both teams are playing consecutive games, New York at least gets a home-court boost, which has also helped Towns this season. The Thunder are indeed a scary unit when fully healthy, but their defense has taken a step back in recent play with their rotating roster. Towns has averaged nearly 34 combined points + assists + rebounds a game this season, with a bump at home. His prop shouldn’t take this much of a hit against the Thunder as it currently sits.
Jalen Johnson Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
This is another prop where recent play doesn't align with how low the prop sits. Jalen Johnson has covered this prop in 12 of his last 15 games, and I expect him to do so again tonight. Milwaukee's defense ranks in the bottom seven of the league while sitting around that same number over their last 15 games.
Of course, it's a big pace-down spot for Atlanta, but the Hawks forward has commanded a 29% usage rate over the last two weeks of play, consistently grabbing double-digit boards. Milwaukee's rebound percentage ranks fourth-last, and dead last on the offensive boards. The extra opportunities on the glass is why I bumped projections here for the Atlanta star and why I love this prop. The possession rate will be down, but Johnson can be efficient enough to easily get this done.
Jarace Walker Under 13.5 Points (-125 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
This prop feels a bit random, but it stuck out like a sore thumb on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, a must-have tool for all your betting needs. The Pacers come into Los Angeles as the worst offensive unit this year. Sure, they've improved a bit as the season has progressive but are still a bottom-seven unit in their last 10 games. Efficiency is not their strong suit.
While the Clippers’ defense is middle of the pack, they do come in as the second-slowest squad in the league. This has also led to the Clippers allowing the fewest points to opposing forwards across the entire season and in their last 15 games. Even with the number of questionable tags on the Pacers’ roster tonight, Jarace Walker isn't exactly a high usage player. He'll have to be highly efficient with limited looks, and I don't see him getting there, despite two strong recent performances.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.