NBA Player Props & Bets: Wednesday (4/1)
Welcome to another day of NBA player props, and happy April. Since the All-Star break, these picks have been flaming hot, and I hope you've been able to capitalize with me. If you aren't taking advantage of the BettingPros tools, you're missing out, but there's no time like the present. As always, monitor any potential news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay informed about NBA player props is to stay current with the latest updates. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value.
We have a healthy nine-game slate, which means plenty of options to choose from. Of course, there are still players with questionable tags across the board, so make sure to stay on top of the news. Anyways, let's get to the best bets of the day. Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Props
Last Time: 2-1 | This Season: 77-60
Joel Embiid Over 41.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
As we come down the final stretch of the season, the gap between the haves and the have-nots has never felt wider. Teams are tanking left and right, and it doesn't even seem like they're trying to hide it. The Wizards aren't a great team; they’re 3-19 since the All-Star break, with the fourth-worst defense and the third-fastest pace of play. Philadelphia is finally healthy (yes, I'm knocking on wood, Sixers fans) and in the midst of a battle for playoff positioning. I can't imagine they're happy with a play-in spot, and getting up to fifth in the Eastern Conference is well within reach.
This means Joel Embiid has to step up. In his three games back from injury, especially his last two, he's looked the part. He played over 34 minutes in his last pair of matchups while scoring over 26 points in each. He's due for positive regression on the boards, and his 33% usage rate feels stable. Also, did I mention he's facing the Wizards? They have allowed the most combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing centers in the entire NBA this season, and they are dealing with a lot of injuries themselves. The total is 241 points in an easy matchup. Don't overthink this one.
Jayson Tatum Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds (-108 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
After resting last game against Atlanta for injury maintenance, Jayson Tatum should be back to full-go here in Miami. The Boston forward has gone over 31 combined points + rebounds in three straight games. In the biggest pace-up game today, he should hit the over again tonight. Miami has allowed the fifth-most combined points + rebounds to opposing power forwards this season.
While we're in a bit of a positionless world right now, Miami’s defense has still ranked in the bottom half of the league since the All-Star break and even worse (26th) over their last 10 games. Maybe Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points was a distraction. This game’s 229-point total might be one of the highest we've seen with Boston, and Tatum has commanded a 33% usage rate in the last handful of games. Combine that with the possession rate, and he can easily cover this line with an expected double-double tonight.
Matas Buzelis Under 30.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Now, if we want to talk about a high total, 249 is one of the highest I've seen all season. That's what we have with Indianapolis-Chicago tonight. Both teams are in the midst of a tank-a-thon, and Matas Buzelis is leading that charge. The Bulls forward has not covered this combo prop line in six of his last seven games.
While the Pacers’ defense is pretty terrible, full stop, the Bulls’ offense has also been in the bottom third of the league over their last 15 games. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects this line closer to 26, and I fully support zagging against this high total. Buzelis hasn't covered the line in two out of three games against the Pacers this season, and I don't expect him to cover it tonight.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.