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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Lakers vs. Nuggets)

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The Western Conference Finals move to Los Angeles after Denver held serve by winning both of the first two games in very different fashions. LeBron James, Anthony Davis & Co. look to continue their undefeated home playoff streak and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Here is our best bet for Game 3.

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Saturday’s Best Bet NBA

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers

Denver has an assertive 2-0 lead in the series, yet find themselves as significant underdogs as the series shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3… but are they being sold short at this number?

The Lakers held their own in the Mile High City and had a chance to steal home court in either of the series’ first two games, but the transition to LA does not justify such a significant swing in the spread. For context, the Nuggets were favored by 7 and 5.5 points in Games 1 and 2 and met such expectations in their two victories.

Let’s do some quick math: If we assume the Nuggets to have a ~4-point home-court advantage, then the markets would have the Nuggets as ~2 points better than the Lakers on a neutral court. And, with this assumption, that would mean this line is asserting to Los Angeles a ~7-point home-court advantage in Game 3. Is that not egregious?

No team had a better record or margin of victory than the Nuggets on their home court this year, and it is nonsense to think that the Lakers should be attributed a greater advantage just because of the situation. The reasons to want to bet on LA are understandable: This game is essentially their season, teams down 0-2 coming home have a historic edge, and the Nuggets have been pedestrian on the road this year. However, the adjustment made to situational factors is far too steep, and the Nuggets are rightful NBA title favorites.

The Lakers should be favored by 2 or 3. Take the free points, and buy the dip on the Nuggets.

Bet: Nuggets +6 (-110)

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