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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (4/23)

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Round 1 of the NBA playoffs is getting exciting, and we have four games on tap Sunday. Three teams will look to even their series at two games apiece, while the Nuggets will look for a first-round sweep of the Timberwolves. Let’s take a look at the slate for my favorite bets of the day.

Season to Date: 29-28-2, -2.15 units

Today’s Best NBA Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks

Game 4 at Madison Square Garden will be an electric atmosphere as the Knicks look to take a 3-1 lead over Cleveland. One large edge the Knicks have had all season in this matchup is on the boards. This advantage has led New York to a 5-2 lead over Cleveland for the year. I like this game to follow a similar script.

Much like during the regular season, in the game Cleveland won in this series, they were on fire from beyond the arc, going 14-for-33 for 42%, well above their average. The Knicks have proven to be a tough matchup for this young Cavaliers team, as they need outlier shooting performances to get consistent scoring. The strong defensive shooting metrics from the Knicks have made Cleveland’s life difficult all year.

The Knicks should be able to contain the Cavaliers and prevent another incredible shooting night. If they’re able to do that, their defense and rebounding are more than enough for them to pull off another strong win and take a 3-1 lead in the series. Covering the spread in this matchup is one of my favorite bets of the day.

Pick: 1.1u on Knicks -2.5 (-110)

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors

After two impressive wins in Sacramento for the Kings over the reigning champions, Game 3 didn’t go exactly as they hoped. A frigid cold shooting night for the second-best shooting team in the league helped aid Golden State to the much-needed win. I like Sacramento to rebound in Game 4 and put up a solid fight against the Warriors.

In Game 3, the Warriors flipped the script and forced the Kings into more turnovers after being beaten in that category in the first two games. During the season, the Warriors turned the ball over at the 2nd highest rate of any team in the league. The Kings were around average at forcing turnovers, but they were able to force the Warriors to 37 total turnovers in the first two games. It’s difficult to expect the Warriors to take care of the ball as they did in Game 3, which gives the Kings an edge.

A better shooting night should also help the Kings rebound from a tough loss. Shooting just 38% from the floor and 23.4% from beyond the arc is tough, and it is a far cry from the second-best shooting team in the league by eFG%. Even a small bump up could propel the Kings to another win, but all I’m looking for is a cover here. I like the Kings against the spread as one of my best bets.

Pick: 1.1u on Kings +7.5 (-110)

Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets will look to sweep the Timberwolves and advance to the Western Conference Semifinals. The Nuggets have won each game in this series by nine or more points, and I don’t expect much of that to change on Sunday night. 

Denver has dominated this series on the boards, out-rebounding the Timberwolves by 25 in the three games of the series. I expect that to continue as Minnesota ranks in the bottom five of both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. Against an elite shooting team like Denver, this spells disaster.

A team like Denver has the ability to finish strong at both the rim and beyond the three-point arc. They rank top five in shooting percentage in both areas. If you aren’t able to take advantage of the rare misses by securing rebounds, you have no chance to win or even cover. A short line like we’re getting in this game is something I’m happy to take. I’ll take Denver and the points to sweep the series as the last of my best bets.

Pick: 1.1u on Nuggets -3.5 (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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