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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (Celtics vs. Heat)

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Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals takes place on Sunday. The series heads to Miami where the Heat look to add onto their 2-0 lead. The Celtics are in must-win mode as no team has come back from an 3-0 deficit in NBA Playoff history. In order to win Game 3, the Celtics will have to be much better on offense in the second half after scoring just 55 and 50 in the second halves of Game 1 and 2, respectively. With the desperation at an all-time high for Boston on the road here are my favorite bets.

Season to Date: 35-34-2, -2.65 units

Sunday’s NBA Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Pick: 0.7u on Celtics 1Q ML (-140)

This is such an important game for the Celtics, and their lineup has had success on the road early in games this postseason. They’ve gone 4-2 SU on 1Q ML on the road during this postseason. The typical difficulties of playing in a road atmosphere are negated early in Miami with a crowd that often takes time to fill in once the game starts. The Celtics have taken the first quarter in both games of this series, including coming back from a nine-point deficit in Game 1. 

Given the stakes, I expect Boston to continue this first-quarter success on the road in Game 3. I’m taking their 1Q ML as one of my best bets.

Pick: 1.55u on Celtics ML (-155)

In the last two Eastern Conference Finals between these two opponents, the road teams are 7-2 SU. Dating back to Game 5 of last year, they’ve won five straight. These are two ultra-competitive teams that have been in these scenarios before, so the road environments don’t affect them as much. I already laid out why I believe Boston is capable of getting off to a strong start, but they should be able to carry that throughout the game.

Regardless of what has happened so far in this series, this Boston team is supremely talented. Obtaining the top adjusted net rating in the league was no fluke. They were also one of the top teams shooting from beyond the arc at 37.7% this year. As poorly as they’ve shot the last two games, they are capable of scorching the nets. This game is the opportunity for their poor shooting fortunes to turn around and pull off their first win.

One player in particular that I expect to step up is Jaylen Brown. He’s shot an abysmal 15.4% from deep in this series on 13 attempts. He’s a career 36% shooter from beyond the arc, who, prior to this series, was shooting 47.1% on 70 attempts in the playoffs. There was likely some regression coming, but this has been overkill. I expect Brown to bounce back and give the Celtics a major lift to get back into this series and win Game 3.

Pick: 1.1u on Total o213.5 (-110)

The Celtics win this game by improving their offensive output. Both Games 1 and 2 managed to go over this number when Boston was shooting well under their season and playoff averages. I’ve already laid out why I think this changes going forward, and in the meantime, they’ll keep going over this number.

Often throughout this postseason, including the last two games, Boston has struggled to stop opponents despite a third-ranked adjusted defensive rating. Miami has really poured it on in the second halves scoring 57 and 66, respectively, in these first two games. Much of this can be attributed to hot shooting by Miami, who has shot 43.9% from 3-point territory in the series, but it is easy to hit shots when you’re open. We’ve seen enough from Boston these playoffs to know they aren’t capable of fixing all of their defensive problems overnight. All of this adds up to a strong over play on this total.

Also make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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