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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/20)

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As the series change venues for Game 3, here is my best bet for Thursday night’s NBA Playoff games.

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Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Clippers

The series is thus far split on the Over/Under, and the oddsmakers have been relatively sharp in setting their lines (Game 1 went under by 0.5 points, and Game 2 went over by 4.5 points). Regardless, we’ll take a stand on the Total in Game 3 as the series shifts to Los Angeles.

Only the Charlotte Hornets (28-13) trended under on their home floor more than the Clippers (27-14) during the regular season, and this fact alone is worth taking a closer look at such a bet in this game: Los Angeles has relatively neutral Offensive and Defensive ratings on their home floor, but they have a slightly worse Offensive and Defensive Rating at home versus on the road. Interestingly though (and evidently, wrongly), the average Over/Under in a Clippers game ticks up nearly a point when playing on their home floor. We see this same phenomenon being exhibited in this game, as the set number of 226.5 is a full point higher than it was in the previous game in Pheonix.

The Clippers are still without Paul George, a net +1.4 offensive player per 538’s RAPTOR Ratings, and were stymied by the Suns offensively in the second half of Game 2 this past Tuesday. I think it’s ambitious to ask them to hold up their end of the bargain on the offensive end in this matchup, as they’ve gotten unlikely contributions from the likes of Eric Gordon and Russell Westbrook (in Games 1 and 2 respectively) thus far. It’s doubtful that such contributions continue for the Clippers, and it’s unfair to continue to expect such an effort from Kawhi Leonard, who has averaged 34.5 ppg through two games this series.

In that same vein, it is doubtful that the Suns’ offense translates with the change of venue, and it has been a unit that has struggled for prolonged periods of the series versus the length of the Clippers. Let’s also note that both of these two teams play at below-average pace, and cite once more that the Over/Under shifting upwards from the previous game is non-sensible. Back the game Under in a likely contentious, and pivotal matchup.

Bet: Under 226.5 (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

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