NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Tuesday (5/13)
The NBA playoffs roll on with two more games on Tuesday night. We have some intriguing matchups on tap, so let's lock in some NBA first-basket scorer picks.
NBA first-basket bets are quick and easy ways to place wagers with bigger payouts, and you’ll know if they cash right away. Check out our predictions for the Pacers vs. Cavaliers Game 5 matchup and the Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 contest tonight.
Note that all betting lines are accurate as of writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these NBA first-basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 13th.
Tuesday's Best NBA Playoffs First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
The Pacers can punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals with a win over the Cavaliers. This will be a very entertaining Game 5 with Cleveland in a do-or-die situation. Let's break down which team and player can score the first points.
In the first four games of this series, the Pacers and Cavs have split trends on the opening tip-off and first-basket scorer prop. Both teams have won two of the four tips, and both teams have scored the first basket twice in the series so far. That makes this Game 5 matchup a complete toss-up.
The season-long trends favor Cleveland, though. The Cavaliers have a 72.2% win rate on opening tips this year compared to 31.9% for Indiana. Plus, Cavs center Jarrett Allen won three out of four head-to-head tip-offs against Pacers center Myles Turner during the regular season. Cleveland also scored the first basket in three of those four meetings.
Let's bank on Allen and Cleveland winning the tip at home, especially with the team in desperation mode. The Cavs must win this game to stay alive, and they'll want to do so by setting the tone early.
In the Cavaliers' Game 3 victory, Max Strus scored the first bucket with a three-pointer on the opening possession. Let's count on a similar script going down on Tuesday night. Strus ranks second on Cleveland in both first-shot percentage and first baskets per start this season. He's also been a bigger part of the offense lately, averaging 15.3 points per game (PPG) in this series and 13.1 PPG in the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
The Nuggets and Thunder are all tied up at two games apiece in this Western Conference Semifinals series. Oklahoma City is a sizable favorite at home for tonight's pivotal Game 5 matchup. Let's try to predict who will score first before the game tips off.
Denver and Oklahoma City have both scored first in two of the first four games of this series. The Nuggets scored the first bucket in Games 1 and 2 before the Thunder cashed the prop in Games 3 and 4. From that perspective, Game 5 could go either way.
During their four regular-season meetings, the Nuggets scored first in three games while the Thunder did it just once. Denver center Nikola Jokic won the opening tip-off in two out of three head-to-head matchups with Oklahoma City big man Chet Holmgren. The two have split their two tip-offs in this series.
These teams are also pretty even in terms of season-long first-basket trends. The Thunder have a 50% win rate on opening tips with 50 made first baskets. The Nuggets have a 46.2% win rate on tips with 44 made first baskets. There isn't much of an edge there.
Since things are pretty split, let's lean towards Denver with the slight advantage in the regular-season meetings. Star guard Jamal Murray leads the Nuggets in first-shot percentage (23.1%) and first baskets per start (15.4%) this season. His 12 made first baskets are also a team-high by a decent margin.
Murray has taken Denver's first shot attempt in two of the four games in this series. In the other two, he took the Nuggets' second shot attempt. Murray was also the first basket scorer in Game 2. He looks to be involved offensively early in games right now. If we can get him at these longer odds, it seems like a steal.
Pick: Jamal Murray (+700)