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NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Saturday (Celtics vs. Heat)

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The Eastern Conference Finals shift back to Miami on Saturday. The Celtics will look to stay alive for another game. Like they did in Games 5 and 6, it will be important for them to get off to a hot start. Miami will also be looking to get going quick in front of their home crowd. With the First Basket being so important to get the tone set for both teams, there will be a lot of focus on the prop. Here are my favorite plays for Saturday night.

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Saturday’s Best NBA Playoffs First Basket Bets

Season to Date: 19-72-5, +3.45 units

Pick: 0.25u on Bam Adebayo (+600)

In both Games 5 and 6, Bam Adebayo was successful in winning the opening tip. Historical data back that teams that win the tip score first more often. When targeting players from Miami, it’s hard not to focus on Adebayo helping himself.

Bam has led the Heat in first team baskets during the playoffs as he did during the regular season. Boston poses a favorable matchup as well. The Celtics gave up almost 30% of their opponents’ first field goals to centers. Adebayo has played really well in the Heat wins this series. If they want to win, Miami should look to get him involved early and take some pressure off the perimeter players. He’s worth a look on Saturday night.

Pick: 0.25u on Jimmy Butler (+600)

It’s not a secret that if Miami is going to finish off this series, they will do so on the back of their star, Jimmy Butler. He’s led the Heat in scoring as they knocked off Milwaukee and New York. His First Basket numbers haven’t been anything to talk about in the playoffs, but this situation is so crucial. With so many perimeter scorers now banged up for Miami, Butler will need to put on his superhero cape again on Saturday. That’s a reason I’m looking at him for First Basket.

Small forward, like Butler, was the position that scored the second most first field goals against the Celtics all season. It’s a strong offensive matchup for Butler if he hunts his shot. I’m going to bet that he does in this key game and make a play on Butler for First Basket.

Pick: 0.1u on Derrick White (+850)

If you’re looking to back a Celtic for First Basket, I have a strong long-shot pick for you. He may not have the star power in his name that Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, or even Marcus Smart possess, but Derrick White has actually excelled early in games this series for Boston.

In Games 3 and 4, combined, in Miami, White took half of the Celtics’ first three field goals. With the series headed back to South Beach, I like his chances to get involved early again. It is also a good matchup for White as Miami gives up over 20% of their first opponent field goals to opposing shooting guards. With all of this in mind, White is a good long-shot play for First Basket in this game.

Also make sure to take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:


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