NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/4)
We get two highly competitive games on Sunday as one series will come to a thrilling end while another will get off to a raucous start. Let's take a deeper look at these two matchups to determine some best NBA bets for the slate.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Playoffs Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Central Division foes square off in the Eastern Conference semi-finals for Game 1 on Sunday. The Pacers and Cavaliers faced each other four times during the regular season, with the Pacers being victorious in three of those contests.
Cleveland took care of Miami in four games, and, frankly, they weren't all that competitive. Indiana will provide a much more difficult test. They were able to fend off the Bucks from making their opening series go deep.
These were two of the best shooting teams in the league all year. Cleveland finished with the best effective field goal rate (eFG%) in the league, while the Pacers were not far behind in fourth. Additionally, these are two of the faster teams in the league as both sit in the top 10 in pace. Most importantly, both teams take care of the ball with turnover rates under 12.5%, which are both top-five marks.
As prolific as these offenses are, this total is too high. Cleveland boasts the Defensive Player of the Year and has a top-three shooting defense. Indiana wasn't the most feared defensive unit, but they did a good job with a short-handed Milwaukee team. They allowed just 108.3 points per game (PPG) in their regulation finishes against the third-best shooting offense in the league.
This should be a very competitive series. I expect both teams to play it more like a chess match as they feel each other out in this series, and like the under.
Picks: Pacers +8.5 (-112) & Under 229.5 Points (-110)
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
The first round of the NBA Playoffs ends Sunday when the Warriors and Rockets play Game 7 of an incredibly competitive series. The early part of this series was defined by strong defense. Each of the first three games of the series went under the total even as it started to dip below 205. Since Game 4, the tides have turned, and we've seen three straight overs.
Typically, in Game 7s, we see low totals set, and this game is no different. However, the Rockets specifically have found a way to get points on the board in the last three games. A major factor in this is their ability to get to the free-throw line. They've made 28 free throws per game in the last three, and the Warriors haven't shown an ability to keep them off the line.
This has been a very competitive back-and-forth series. I don't see an edge on the spread, but I like the total. If these teams are going to the free-throw line as much as they have so far, this game should easily go over. I'll bet that the trend of Game 7 unders has gone too far the other way, and I'm taking the over.
Pick: Total Over 203 Points (-110)