NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/1)
The National Basketball Association (NBA) has two playoff games on tap, with the doubleheader available on TNT/truTV/Max. The New York Knicks travel to meet the Detroit Pistons for Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first-round series at 7:30 p.m. ET in the first game, while the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers square off in Game 6 at 10 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome.
Let’s keep building that bankroll for the stretch run with our best NBA bets for Thursday, May 1.
Thursday’s Best NBA Playoffs Picks
NBA odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All picks are for 1 unit
New York Knicks (+106) at Detroit Pistons (-124) | O/U 214 (-110/-110)
The Pistons staved off elimination in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden, posting a 106-103 victory Tuesday night as a 5.5-point underdog. It was the second win in this series at MSG for the Pistons, and if they want to win this series, they’ll need to win Thursday in Motown and get a third outright victory in Manhattan. But, first things first.
There has been no such thing as a home-court advantage in this series. The Knicks won 123-112 in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden back on April 19. There hasn’t been a home winner since as Detroit won Game 2 100-94 as a 6.5-point underdog, before the Knicks won both Games 3 and 4 in Detroit, while the Pistons won at MSG last time out. What in the world?
In Tuesday’s win, Cade Cunningham led the way with 24 points, eight assists and eight rebounds, while posting two steals, a blocked shot and a 3-pointer in 37 minutes. Ausar Thompson also had a stellar game, going for 22 points on an efficient 8-of-10 shooting, while pulling down seven rebounds with a pair of blocked shots. Five players had double-digit point totals, and Dennis Schroder hit for 14 points off the bench, while Malik Beasley was good for 10 points, including a pair of 3-pointers.
The Knicks had balanced scoring, with all five starters in double digits. OG Anunoby hit for a team-best 19 points, while adding eight rebounds and three triples. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns was good for 17 points and 11 rebounds with two blocked shots and two 3-pointers, one of two double-doubles on the team. Mitchell Robinson, injured for a good chunk of the regular season, shined in Game 5, posting 13 points with 11 boards and a pair of swats while shooting an efficient 5-of-8 from the field in 23 minutes off the bench.
The way things have been going in this series, it’s easy to pick the Knicks based on the road trends. But there is something about this Pistons team, as they’ve faced tremendous adversity, coming back time and again. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Pistons force a decisive Game 7 back in New York City. And, with such small numbers, there is never a reason to back the moneyline, unless you’re dead-set on this game ending as a Pistons 1-point win. In fact, generally, if the spread is 3 or lower, you lay the points rather than the moneyline. In general, I never try to play ML favorites, but lay the points instead.
As far as the total is concerned, the defense has ratcheted up as this series has gone deeper. We’ve had a pair of Under results in the past two games, with the winning team averaging just 100.0 points per game (PPG), and the losing side going for 98.0 PPG, for an average of 198.0. We’ve had 209 or fewer points in three of the past four in the series, too. Let’s go low on the total, as defense should reign supreme.
Picks: Pistons -1.5 (-112) & Under 214 Points (-110)
Denver Nuggets (+220) at Los Angeles Clippers (-270) | O/U 212 (-112/-108)
These two teams finished with very similar records during the regular season, so it’s no real shock that this has been a knock-down, drag-out fight in this best-of-seven first-round matchup.
We’ve had plenty of drama, but now the Nuggets have pushed the Clippers to the brink of elimination heading into Game 6. The road team has won two of the past four games, while Denver is 2-0 SU/ATS in the past two outings after Los Angeles took a 2-1 series lead, while covering each of the first three in the series.
We’ve had three games decided by three or fewer points, one game go to overtime, and a pair of lopsided wins by 16 or more points by each team. There has been a little bit of everything. What was rare, in Game 5, was an Over (209.5) result. The first four games went Under, so the books adjusted. And, the teams combined for 246 total points in Denver’s 131-115 rout at Ball Arena. Go figure.
In Game 5, it was all about the Blue Arrow. Denver’s Jamal Murray was unconscious from the floor, going 17-of-26, including 8-of-14 from downtown, while finishing with 43 points, seven assists, five rebounds, and three steals, while adding a blocked shot. It wasn’t Nikola Jokic forced to carry the team, although he did have 13 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds for the triple-double. Former Kansas star Christian Braun stepped up with a double-double, too, posting 11 points with 12 rebounds, three assists, and two steals on an efficient 5-of-8 shooting.
It was a good night all around for the Nuggs, who hit 55.8% (48-of-86) from the field, while raining in 3-pointers at a 51.5% (17-of-33) clip. If there were any complaints, it was at the free-throw line, where they were just 78.3% (18-of-23), but the Nuggets also turned it over just nine times, while blocking seven shots. Rebounding margin was dead-even, too.
Kawhi Leonard continues to have a solid series for the Clips. He had 20 points and 11 assists, just missing a triple-double by a single rebound. He also blocked two shots, as did Ivica Zubac, who ended up with a team-high 27 points on 11-of-15 shooting.
The Clippers are at home, but the Nuggets catching more than three buckets seems like an awfully big number. Take Denver with the points, and let’s stick with the Over, which is against the trends a bit.
Picks: Nuggets +6.5 (-106) & Over 214 Points (-112)