NCAA Bracket Predictions (2021 March Madness)

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 14, 2021

Welcome back to my final bracketology article before Selection Sunday. I am writing this Saturday night, so there are still the Sunday conference championship games to conclude. Make sure to check my other article on rankings and betting advice along with the best futures odds available and power rankings. Here are some quick points before I jump into my final projected seeding.

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What If? Scenarios: The seeding won't change all too much based on these final games, but I have included quick bullets for how a team’s seeding might change based on Sunday's outcomes. Make sure to follow me on Twitter @ryancoleman_98, where I will be posting my final bracket projection.

Loyola (MD) vs. Colgate: The Raiders of Colgate should win this game, but if not, I don't see them making the tournament. If Loyola steals the auto-bid, their record would be 7-10, so they would be a 16-seed.
VCU vs. St. Bonaventure: Both teams are comfortably in the tournament and I don't see the outcome of this game impacting seeding too much. Perhaps the victor can jump up to a 9-seed.
LSU vs. Alabama: I view the Crimson Tide as a lock for a 2-seed, win or lose. LSU has been on a nice run and could find themselves as a 7-seed if they take down the SEC tournament.
Cincinnati vs. Houston: Bubble teams will have their eyes glued to this game as Cincinnati represents the final potential bid-stealer. If the Bearcats win, they would push Utah State out of the field and potentially push Houston to a 3-seed. Otherwise, the Cougars should solidify themselves as a 2-seed.
Ohio State vs. Illinois: I don't see the outcome of this game changing the seeding number for either team. If Illinois wins, they can jump Michigan as the third-overall ranked team, but nothing more. If Ohio State wins, they could potentially jump Iowa and Houston as the sixth-overall ranked team.

Selection Sunday: After all that has happened over the past year, I cannot believe we have finally made it back to a Selection Sunday where a real bracket is going to be unveiled. It is an exciting time and the week leading up to the first-round games is my favorite time of the year. Thank you to everyone who has read these articles, I can't tell you how much it means to me. There will be plenty more once the bracket is released, and remember to enjoy the tournament because man of man have I missed this.

Now let’s get to the seeding.

Locks, Borderline Locks, and Bubble Watch

With Selection Sunday mere hours away, more and more teams have locked themselves into at-large tournament bids. I ordered this part by conference, including the locks, borderline locks, and teams that are on the bubble.

ACC

Locks: Florida State, Virginia, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, North Carolina
Borderline Locks: None
Bubble Watch: Louisville, Syracuse

Big 12

Locks: Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas
Borderline Locks: None
Bubble Watch: None

Big East

Locks: Villanova, Creighton, Connecticut, Georgetown
Borderline Locks: None
Bubble Watch: Xavier, Seton Hall

Big Ten

Locks: Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue
Borderline Locks: Maryland, Rutgers
Bubble Watch: Michigan State

Pac-12

Locks: USC, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon State
Borderline Locks: None
Bubble Watch: UCLA

SEC

Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida
Borderline Locks: LSU
Bubble Watch: Mississippi

Mid Majors/Others

Locks: Gonzaga, Houston, BYU, Loyola-Chicago, San Diego State
Borderline Locks: St. Bonaventure, VCU, Drake
Bubble Watch: Utah State, Boise State, Saint Louis, SMU, Wichita State, Memphis, Louisiana Tech, Western Kentucky, Colorado State

Auto-Bids

Gonzaga (WCC)
Texas (Big 12)
Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
San Diego State (Mountain West)
Georgia Tech (ACC)
Georgetown (Big East)
Oregon State (Pac-12)
Winthrop (Big South)
Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
UNC Greensboro (Southern)
Ohio (MAC)
Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
Drexel (Colonial)
Oral Roberts (Summit)
Iona (Metro Atlantic)
Hartford (America East)
Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
North Texas (C-USA)
Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)
Norfolk State (Mid-Eastern)
Appalachian State (Sun Belt)
Grand Canyon (WAC)
Abilene Christian (Southland)
Texas Southern (SWAC)

Seeding

1 Seeds

Gonzaga (26-0)
Baylor (22-2)
Illinois (22-6)
Michigan (20-4)

2 Seeds

Alabama (23-6)
Iowa (21-8)
Houston (23-3)
Ohio State (21-8)

3 Seeds

Oklahoma State (20-8)
Arkansas (22-6)
Kansas (20-8)
Texas (19-7)

4 Seeds

West Virginia (18-9)
Florida State (16-5)
Virginia (18-6)
Purdue (18-9)

5 Seeds

Villanova (16-6)
Creighton (20-8)
Texas Tech (17-10)
Colorado (22-7)

6 Seeds

Tennessee (18-8)
USC (22-7)
Oregon (20-6)
Oklahoma (15-10)

7 Seeds

Wisconsin (17-12)
Missouri (16-9)
Loyola Chicago (24-4)
BYU (20-6)

8 Seeds

San Diego State (23-4)
Virginia Tech (15-6)
Connecticut (15-7)
LSU (18-8)

9 Seeds

Clemson (16-7)
North Carolina (18-10)
Florida (14-9)
Rutgers (15-11)

10 Seeds

Georgia Tech (17-8)
VCU (19-6)
St. Bonaventure (15-4)
Maryland (16-13)

11 Seeds

Michigan State (15-12)
Drake (25-4)
Louisville* (13-7)
UCLA* (17-9)
Wichita State* (15-4)
Utah State* (18-7)

12 Seeds

Georgetown (13-12)
Oregon State (17-12)
Winthrop (22-1)
Colgate (12-1)

13 Seeds

Ohio (16-7)
Liberty (23-5)
UNC Greensboro (21-8)
UC Santa Barbara (19-4)

14 Seeds

North Texas (17-9)
Cleveland State (17-7)
Abilene Christian (21-4)
Morehead State (23-7)

15 Seeds

Eastern Washington (16-7)
Grand Canyon (15-6)
Oral Roberts (16-10)
Drexel (12-7)

16 Seeds

Iona (12-5)
Hartford (14-8)
Mount St. Mary's* (12-10)
Appalachian State* (17-11)
Texas Southern* (16-8)
Norfolk State* (14-7)

*Play-in games

First Four Out

Syracuse (16-9)
Colorado State (17-5)
Xavier (13-7)
Memphis (16-8)

Next Four Out

Mississippi (16-11)
SMU (11-5) out
Louisiana Tech (21-7)
Saint Louis (14-6)

Biggest Risers: Georgia Tech, Maryland, Georgetown, Oregon State

Biggest Fallers: West Virginia, Louisville, UCLA, Xavier (Out), Colorado State (Out)

The Bracket

For specificity, the Region A winner would face the Region C winner in the Final Four, and Region B and Region D winners would face off.

Region A

1) Gonzaga

16) Texas Southern vs. Norfolk State

8) LSU

9) Clemson

5) Texas Tech

12) Colgate

4) Purdue

13) Ohio

3) Arkansas

14) Morehead State

6) Oklahoma

11) UCLA vs. Wichita State

7) Wisconsin

10) Georgia Tech

2) Houston

15) Eastern Washington

Region B

1) Baylor

16) Mount St. Mary's vs. Appalachian State

8) San Diego State

9) Rutgers

5) Villanova

12) Winthrop

4) Virginia

13) UC Santa Barbara

3) Kansas

14) Abilene Christian

6) Oregon

11) Louisville vs. Utah State

7) Missouri

10) St. Bonaventure

2) Ohio State

15) Drexel

Region C

1) Illinois

16) Hartford

8) Virginia Tech

9) Florida

5) Creighton

12) Oregon State

4) Florida State

13) Liberty

3) Texas

14) Cleveland State

6) USC

11) Michigan State

7) Loyola Chicago

10) VCU

2) Iowa

15) Grand Canyon

Region D

1) Michigan

16) Iona

8) Connecticut

9) North Carolina

5) Colorado

12) Georgetown

4) West Virginia

13) UNC Greensboro

3) Oklahoma State

14) North Texas

6) Tennessee

11) Drake

7) BYU

10) Maryland

2) Alabama

15) Oral Roberts

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