NCAA Tournament Best Elite 8 Bets for Saturday, March 26th (2022 March Madness)
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No. 5 Houston (-2) vs. No. 2 Villanova O/U 128 (Tip: 6:09 p.m. ET TBS)
Villanova is playing like a veteran team and continues to come up big in the clutch moments.
They weren’t lighting up the scoreboard and just shot 37.3% on the floor against Michigan, but when they needed it most, this team stayed poised and found a way to win the game. It’s not always about having a couple of great players, but it’s a collective unit working together, and that’s how they got to this point.
Hitting important shots will be the key in helping them make it to the Final Four, but they’re also one of the best at not turning over the ball (12th fewest), and are shooting 82.6% at the free-throw line, which is tops in the nation. If this game stays close, it will undoubtedly favor the Wildcats.
It will certainly not be easy to play a close game against Houston. Although the Cougars are the lower seed, according to KenPom rankings, they are the best team remaining in this tournament.
The offense was supposed to take a huge hit with lead-scoring Marcus Sasser out with a foot injury, but they’re averaging 77 points in the tournament, and they were able to out-play an Arizona on the boards, which rarely happens.
The battle on the boards is where Houston will win this game. They now have ten or more offensive rebounds in each of the last five games and are 25-1 this season when they have over ten. In four of its last five games, Villanova has allowed 11 or more offensive boards.
While Villanova has been able to persevere with their lack of size and bench depth, this will be their biggest challenge. Houston has the best field-goal defense, is 11th against the three, and is second in rebounding.
Collin Gillespie will have a problem against Jamal Shead, who’s smaller than Gillespie, but is quick, athletic, and one of the best perimeter defenders in the country. Houston has been able to get their opponents to play out of their comfort zones throughout this tournament, and they’ll do it again to punch a ticket to the Final Four.
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 2 Duke (-4) O/U 147.5 (Tip: 8:49 p.m. ET TBS)
Duke has not played their best basketball throughout this tournament, but they’ve continued to find a way to survive and move on.
Friday night against Texas Tech was their best performance in a while. The Red Raiders played them tough, but Duke was able to move on.
The Blue Devils are a very quick and athletic team that likes to drive to the paint. Nearly 54% of their points are scored in the paint.
They will have the size advantage in this matchup, and they’ll need to continue to play with that physicality to pull off the win. They’re also the better rebounding team, especially on the offensive end, so they should have the opportunity for second chances even if they miss their initial shots.
No one should be surprised to see Arkansas in this position.
They played in a very tough SEC and had wins against Tennessee, LSU, Kentucky, and two against Auburn. Now they’re coming into a game, having beaten the overall No. 1 team and ready to end the career of one of the greatest coaches in the history of basketball.
This will be a challenging task for the Razorbacks, as everything they’ve been able to do to win games will not come easy in this matchup.
They’re a pressing defense that has gotten teams to turn the ball over on 20.5% per possession and forced Gonzaga to turn over the ball 15 times. Unfortunately, Duke does not turn the ball over as they were 22nd with just 10 per game.
They’re also great at getting to the free-throw line,m as they find their way to the charity stripe on 26% of their offensive possessions. Duke’s defense knows how to defend without allowing free throws as they’ve fouled on just 19% of their defensive possessions, sixth-lowest in the nation.
Duke has the size, skills, and playmakers to win this game. The fact Arkansas beat Gonzaga does not scare the Blue Devils because they also beat the Zags earlier this year. They are just too many factors where the Razorbacks had advantages in previous games that Duke can neutralize. Coach K’s career does not end today.
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