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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2.0 (2023 Men’s College Basketball)

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Welcome to my second bracketology article this season. March Madness is right around the corner, and most teams are starting to show their true colors as we gain more and more data daily. I will be here to update my projected bracket once a week, and then I’ll provide more consistent updates once we get to March as the tournament approaches. 

Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me explain. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams’ betting futures. You may be high on a team, but an understanding of their seeding and potential opponents is critical. I’m here in an attempt to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.

Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderellas of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else and saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released. 

Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. For now, I’ll simply provide my projected seeding for the field of 68. Moving forward, I will organize teams by their region, providing my projected bracket and region breakdown.

Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament “locks.” These are teams that have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. I’ll take a conservative approach here, however, because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any team’s season can turn on a dime (i.e., Ohio State).

Finally, I’m building this bracket based on today’s standings rather than projecting where it might be in the future. But that’s enough background; let’s get to the bracket. 

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2023 NCAA Tournament Bracketology 2.0

Locks

  • Houston (22-2)
  • Alabama (20-3)
  • Purdue (22-2)
  • Kansas (19-5)
  • UCLA (19-4)
  • Tennessee (19-4)
  • Saint Mary’s (21-4)
  • Arizona (21-3)
  • Texas (19-5)
  • UConn (19-6)

As I said, I’m hesitant to guarantee many teams a tournament spot just yet. The teams in italics have been added this week.

Tennessee ranks second in KenPom, and despite their losses to Vanderbilt and Florida, I’d be pretty surprised to see them fall off the map.

Saint Mary’s has come out of the woodwork after their Gonzaga victory. However, if you remember my last article, I told you to take them at +6500 for a championship future – they now sit at +3000.

Arizona continues winning games, and Texas’ strength of schedule is too good to fall off the map. UConn was close last time, and now I’m cautiously giving them the benefit of the doubt.   

The championship futures I like right now: Creighton (+3500 on FanDuel) and NC State (+150000 on FanDuel). Creighton has been on the warpath of late, winning six-straight games and ranking fourth in the nation since Jan. 1. As for NC State, their odds should not be so low right now.   

The Seeding

1 Seeds

  • Purdue
  • Houston
  • Alabama
  • Kansas

2 Seeds

  • Arizona
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • UCLA

3 Seeds

  • Iowa State
  • Virginia
  • Baylor
  • Xavier

4 Seeds

  • Gonzaga
  • UConn
  • Saint Mary’s
  • Marquette

5 Seeds

  • Arkansas
  • TCU
  • Kansas State
  • Rutgers

6 Seeds

  • Indiana
  • Auburn
  • Providence
  • Miami (FL)

7 Seeds

  • Florida Atlantic
  • San Diego State
  • Illinois
  • N.C. State

8 Seeds

  • Missouri
  • Iowa
  • Michigan State
  • Duke

9 Seeds

  • Maryland
  • Creighton
  • North Carolina
  • West Virginia

10 Seeds

  • USC
  • Boise State
  • Pittsburgh
  • New Mexico

11 Seeds

  • College of Charleston
  • Kentucky
  • Memphis
  • Oklahoma State*
  • Northwestern*

12 Seeds

  • Clemson*
  • Nevada*
  • VCU (A10)
  • Oral Roberts (Summit)
  • Liberty (ASun)

13 Seeds

  • Marshall (Sun Belt)
  • Kent State (MAC)
  • Iona (MAAC)
  • Utah Valley  (WAC)

14 Seeds

  • Princeton (Ivy)
  • Furman (Southern)
  • UC Irvine (Big West)
  • Youngstown State (Horizon) 

15 Seeds

  • Bradley (MVC)
  • Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
  • Longwood (Big South)
  • Colgate (Patriot)

16 Seeds

  • UMass Lowell (AE)
  • SIU Edwardsville (OVC)
  • Norfolk State* (MEAC)
  • Texas A&M Corpus Christi* (Southland)
  • Southern* (SAC)
  • Fairleigh Dickinson* (Northeast)

*Play-in games

First Four Out

  • Texas A&M
  • Arizona State
  • Wisconsin
  • Utah State

Next Four Out

  • Virginia Tech
  • Mississippi State
  • Penn State
  • Florida

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.