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NCAA Tournament Bracketology 3.0 (2023 Men’s College Basketball)

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Welcome to my third bracketology article this season. March Madness is right around the corner, and most teams are starting to show their true colors as we gain more and more data daily. I will be here to update my projected bracket once a week, and then I’ll provide more consistent updates once we get to March as the tournament approaches. With the top-16 bracket reveal coming later today, we will get a much better sense of where teams sit with less than a month left before the tournament starts.

Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me tell you. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams’ betting futures. You may be high on a team, but an understanding of their seeding and potential opponents is critical, and I’m here in an attempt to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.

Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderellas of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else and saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released.

NCAA Tournament Bracketology 3.0

Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. This is an exciting bracketology for me, as I will be providing matchups from here moving forward. If you’re anything like me, it’s always interesting to go through fake brackets to get a sense of where you’re at on a team.

Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament “locks.” These are teams that have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. I’ll take a conservative approach here, however, because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any team’s season can turn on a dime (see: Kansas State).

Finally, I’m building this bracket based on today’s standings rather than by projecting where it might be in the future. But that’s enough rambling; let’s get to the bracket.

Locks

  • Houston (24-2)
  • Alabama (22-4)
  • Purdue (23-4)
  • Kansas (21-5)
  • UCLA (22-4)
  • Tennessee (20-6)
  • Saint Mary’s (23-5)
  • Arizona (23-4)
  • Texas (20-6)
  • UConn (19-7)
  • Baylor (20-6)
  • Virginia (20-4)
  • Marquette (21-6)

As I said, I’m hesitant to guarantee many teams a tournament spot just yet, more so this year than any year previous. The teams in italics have been added this week. Baylor is gunning on all cylinders again as they are back to full health and looking like a championship-caliber team. Their matchup against Kansas this weekend should be awesome. Virginia had a scare against Louisville, but they can coast to the ACC tourney with three matchups against sub-100 ranked squads. Shaka Smart and Co. are looking dangerous after going 15-3 in their last 18 games. Marquette can easily make it to the Final Four this year.

There is only one championship future I really like right now, and let me give you a blind resume of the team before telling you who it is. Since January 1, this team ranks fourth in efficiency via Bart Torvik after going 11-2 so far in 2023. They are a single game back of first place in a Power-6 conference while ranking in the top 10 in offensive rebounding with the 22nd-best offense in the nation. This squad is 6-5 across Quad I and Quad II but somehow has the 40th-lowest championship odds at +15000 on DraftKings. The team? Texas A&M.

The Aggies have turned a corner with only two losses – both on the road against Kentucky and Arkansas – since December 21. Buzz Williams has done a phenomenal job of late, and I can only imagine their odds will continue getting shorter. I like them against Missouri this weekend, and they have the potential to continue bolstering their resume as they finish the season at home against Alabama.

Anyways, let’s get to the seeding and potential tournament matchups.

The Seeding

1 Seeds

  • Houston
  • Alabama
  • Kansas
  • Purdue

2 Seeds

  • UCLA
  • Texas
  • Baylor
  • Tennessee

3 Seeds

  • Arizona
  • Virginia
  • Marquette
  • UConn

4 Seeds

  • St. Mary’s
  • Gonzaga
  • Kansas State
  • Xavier

5 Seeds

  • Creighton
  • Indiana
  • Iowa State
  • Miami

6 Seeds

  • San Diego State
  • Northwestern
  • TCU
  • Illinois

7 Seeds

  • Maryland
  • Michigan State
  • Providence
  • Iowa

8 Seeds

  • Rutgers
  • Auburn
  • Missouri
  • Duke

9 Seeds

  • Arkansas
  • Pittsburgh
  • Texas A&M
  • Boise State

10 Seeds

  • North Carolina State
  • Oklahoma State
  • Nevada
  • Florida Atlantic

11 Seeds

  • Memphis
  • West Virginia
  • North Carolina*
  • Kentucky*
  • Wisconsin*
  • USC*

12 Seeds

  • College of Charleston (Colonial)
  • VCU(A10)
  • Oral Roberts (Summit)
  • Liberty (ASun)

13 Seeds

  • Marshall (Sun Belt)
  • Kent State (MAC)
  • Iona (MAAC)
  • Utah Valley (WAC)

14 Seeds

  • Yale (Ivy)
  • Furman (Southern)
  • Drake (MVC)
  • Youngstown State (Horizon)

15 Seeds

  • UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
  • Eastern Washington (Big Sky)
  • UNC-Asheville (Big South)
  • Colgate (Patriot)

16 Seeds

  • Vermont (AE)
  • Morehead State (OVC)
  • Norfolk State* (MEAC)
  • Texas A&M Corpus Christi* (Southland)
  • Grambling State* (SWAC)
  • Stonehill* (Northeast)

*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions

First Four Out

  • Mississippi State
  • New Mexico
  • Clemson
  • Utah State

Next Four Out

  • Oregon
  • Wake Forest
  • Penn State
  • Florida

The Bracket

South (Louisville)

1 Houston
16 Grambling State/Stonehill

8 Maryland
9 Texas A&M

5 Creighton
12 Liberty

4 Kansas State
13 Marshall

6 Illinois
11 Memphis

3 Arizona
14 Youngstown State

7 Arkansas
10 Florida Atlantic

2 Baylor
15 UC Santa Barbara

West (Las Vegas)
1 Purdue
16 Vermont

8 Auburn
9 Boise State

5 Miami
12 College of Charleston

4 St. Mary’s
13 Utah Valley

6 San Diego State
11 Kentucky/North Carolina

3 UConn
14 Yale

7 Iowa
10 North Carolina State

2 UCLA
15 Colgate

Midwest (Kansas City)

1 Kansas
16 Morehead State

8 Missouri
9 Pittsburgh

5 Indiana
12 VCU

4 Kansas State
13 Iona

6 Northwestern
11 West Virginia

3 Virginia
14 Drake

7 Providence
10 Nevada

2 Texas
15 UNC-Asheville

East (New York)

1 Alabama
16 Norfolk State/TAMCC

8 Rutgers
9 Duke

5 Iowa State
12 Oral Roberts

4 Gonzaga
13 Kent State

6 TCU
11 Wisconsin/USC

3 Marquette
14 Furman

7 Michigan State
10 Oklahoma State

2 Tennessee
15 Eastern Washington

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.