NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Preview: Saturday (Iowa vs. Illinois)
The NCAA Tournament rolls on with a pair of Elite 8 matchups on Saturday. Let’s break down one of those games, as we focus on the South Region finale of the March Madness bracket. We have a Big Ten Conference rematch in the NCAA Tournament Elite 8 as Illinois faces Iowa.
Find out which key stats, trends and metrics are worth paying attention to in this showdown. We'll also outline how each team got here and look at the betting odds for Illinois versus Iowa.
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NCAA Tournament Elite 8 Preview (South Region)
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
The South Region will run through the Big Ten Conference. We now have No. 3 seed Illinois taking on No. 9 seed Iowa in the Elite 8 on Saturday night, just as everyone predicted. Let's break down the matchup from every angle as the conference foes battle for a trip to the Final Four.
No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs. No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini
First off, let's review how both teams got here. After easily handling Penn and VCU in the first two rounds, Illinois took down Houston in the Sweet 16. The 65-55 win was fueled by a decisive 17-0 run in the second half that essentially put the game away. David Mirkovic (14 points, 10 rebounds) and Keaton Wagler (13 points, 12 rebounds) anchored the impressive victory.
Iowa beat Nebraska, 77-71, on Thursday to stay alive. The Hawkeyes once trailed by double digits early on, but a major second-half push led to the win. Bennett Stirtz put up 20 points, while Tate Sage (19 points) and Alvaro Folgueiras (16) came up big off the bench. Iowa has now won three straight games as the higher seed, defeating No. 8 Clemson and No. 1 Florida in the prior two rounds.
These teams met once in the regular season, with Illinois grabbing a 75-69 road win. The Fighting Illini jumped out to an 18-point lead in the first half and eventually held off the Hawkeyes, who did make it close in the end. Wagler scored a game-high 19 points, while Kylan Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic both put up 17 points apiece.
The high-powered Illinois offense can present some problems for Iowa's defense in this rematch. The Illini are second nationally in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive turnover rate and offensive rebounding. They're dangerous from three-point range (35.1% on the year) and boast a top-25 two-point offense as well.
Iowa forces turnovers at the 16th-best rate in the sport, but that's about the only thing it does well on defense. The Hawkeyes are 251st nationally in opposing effective shooting rate, and they particularly struggle to defend inside. That's an issue against Illinois, with plenty of size and ability to score around the rim.
On the other end, Iowa's methodical offensive style is clicking in the NCAA Tournament thus far. The Hawkeyes rank 20th in the country in offensive efficiency this year, and they're among the top 15 nationally in two-point shooting. Stirtz is running the offense well right now with multiple unsung contributors alongside.
Illinois is 21st in defensive efficiency, while boasting the size to keep Iowa out of the paint. Notably, the Illini are elite in one key defensive metric and terrible at another. They rank first in the entire sport in allowing free-throw attempts, but they're also dead last nationally at forcing turnovers. The ability to avoid fouls matters more in March, though the struggles to turn teams over could come back to bite the Fighting Illini.
This game is projected to be a slower-paced matchup, based on how both teams prefer to play. Iowa is 361st in the country in tempo and 363rd in offensive pace. The Hawkeyes love to play slow and don't look to score in transition often. Illinois, meanwhile, is 286th in overall tempo and 332nd in offensive pace.