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NCAA Tournament Parlays & Picks: Round 1 (March Madness)

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The NCAA Tournament is finally here. We have March Madness first-round games on tap all day on Thursday and Friday. Before the action gets going, let’s build a three-leg parlay spanning both of the first two days. Good luck with your own picks.

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Best NCAA Tournament Parlays & Picks: Round 1

(Odds via BetMGM)

Kennesaw State vs. Gonzaga Under 154.5 Points (-110) 

Let's lead off our parlay with one of Thursday's late-night games. No. 3 seed Gonzaga takes on No. 14 seed Kennesaw State in the West region of the NCAA Tournament bracket. The Bulldogs are big favorites and should win this game easily, but we're looking at the total. 

Gonzaga's elite defense will be a major factor in holding Kennesaw State's fast-paced offense in check. The Bulldogs boast the ninth-best defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom, while allowing just 66 points per game (PPG) this season. They're holding opponents to 30.8% from three-point range (31st in Division I) and are top-20 nationally in defensive rebounding, defensive turnover rate and two-point defense. 

Past Gonzaga teams were mainly built on strong offenses, but not this year. Mark Few's team is leaning on its defense to control games. The Bulldogs have size and veteran experience at every position to guard tight and suffocate the opposition. That will be key against Kennesaw State, which plays at the 19th-quickest tempo in the sport. 

The Owls' offense also relies heavily on second-chance points and getting to the free-throw line. However, those opportunities will be tough to come by in this matchup. Gonzaga's transition defense has been excellent, and it does well to avoid fouling. The Bulldogs won't give away easy buckets and they defend the paint at a high level. 

On the other end, Gonzaga's offense should be fine overall, but it also could go through some scoreless stretches in an interesting matchup. Kennesaw State actually defends the paint very well. The Owls rank 13th nationally in block rate and 29th in two-point defense. That's a slight issue for a Bulldogs attack that relies on its two-point scoring at the third-highest rate in the country. 

Gonzaga prefers to play through Graham Ike and score close with cuts to the rim. Yet, Kennesaw State has the interior defense to force the Bulldogs to the perimeter. However, they're shooting a paltry 31.8% on threes in conference play. There may be some growing pains for Few's offense early on before it grinds down the Owls in the second half. 

Notably, the under is 13-2 over Gonzaga's last 15 games. This stretch has also coincided with Braden Huff's injury. The big man isn't expected to play in this first-round game, and his absence has downgraded the Bulldogs' overall offensive efficiency. The under is also 9-5 in Kennesaw State's past 14 contests. 

Leg #2: Akron + 8.5 (-118)

Pinpointing the first-round upsets is always an intriguing but tough task. Could we have one brewing in Tampa on Friday as No. 12 seed Akron takes on No. 5 seed Texas Tech? It's very possible, so let's grab the Zips to cover the spread and make the Red Raiders sweat. 

Akron enters as a very live underdog to at least keep this one close, and possibly pull out the outright victory. Miami (OH) was the headliner story out of the MAC this year, but the Zips are actually the better team by many predictive and advanced metrics. They also have a veteran coach with valuable March Madness experience. 

John Groce has now taken Akron to three straight NCAA Tournaments, and four over the past five seasons. Each of the previous three appearances resulted in first-round exits, but this year's Zips squad is the best one yet. They're 54th in NET Ranking and 64th at KenPom, coming in as one of the highest-rated mid-major teams in the bracket. Groce is also notably 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in his career in the NCAA Tournament. 

Akron's dangerous offense should come to play. The Zips rank eighth nationally in effective field-goal rate while shooting 38.5% from three-point range (14th in Division I). They play at the 32nd-fastest tempo in the country as well. Plus, Akron is a veteran-laden team, starting four seniors with another playing big minutes off the bench. 

This is no pushover first-round opponent for Texas Tech, who enter the bracket on a down note. The Red Raiders have lost three straight games, including a 22-point deficit against Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. The season-ending injury to All-American JT Toppin may be catching up to a team that hasn't won in three weeks now. Health is also a question mark for Christian Anderson and LeJuan Watts, who both suffered minor injuries in the latest game. They should play, but may not be at 100%. 

Texas Tech is definitely the better team with more talent. However, the Red Raiders' current form isn't anywhere close to the level we saw a month or two ago. Conversely, Akron is red-hot with a 19-1 record over its last 20 games. Yes, those wins came against MAC opponents, but it still cannot be ignored for a team that's used to being the best in its league. 

Leg #3: Utah State Moneyline (-140)

The first round No. 8 versus No. 9 matchups are usually coin-flip games, and this Utah State versus Villanova showdown is no different. The Aggies enter as slight favorites despite being the lower seed. Both teams have their strengths and flaws, but Utah State is the more proven team and owns a few key edges to get the victory. 

Notably, Villanova has struggled in its toughest games this season. The Wildcats are just 1-6 against top-50 KenPom teams, and the only win came in overtime versus Wisconsin. They benefited from playing in a weak Big East, but went 0-4 against the league's top two teams in UConn and St. John's. Plus, Villanova enters on a sour note after getting upset by Georgetown in the conference tournament quarterfinals by double digits, no less. 

Utah State, conversely, brings in a much better resume. It went 5-2 this year against teams in the top 50 at KenPom. The Aggies also won both the Mountain West regular season and conference tournament titles. Their latest run featured three straight double-digit wins en route to the league tourney crown. 

In this matchup, Utah State's backcourt and offense overall can anchor the victory. Mason Falslev, MJ Collins Jr. and Drake Allen give the Aggies a trio of veteran playmakers and ball-handlers who can score in multiple ways. They headline an offense ranked 28th in the country in efficiency and 14th in effective field-goal rate, per KenPom. 

Utah State's top-tier ability to score in the paint will be especially pivotal. The Aggies are 11th nationally in two-point shooting, with Falslev and Collins both excelling around the rim. Villanova, meanwhile, has struggled inside defensively. The Wildcats rank 341st in defensive block rate, 244th in defensive rebounding and 170th in opposing two-point offense. The recent season-ending injury to Matt Hodge also hurts Villanova’s interior presence and frontcourt depth. 

Parlay Odds: +505

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