NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets: Final Four (Saturday)
The NCAA Tournament rolls on into the Final Four round on Saturday. We have two marquee matchups on tap as we inch closer to crowning a National Champion in college basketball. Illinois and UConn will battle it out in the earlier tip, and then Michigan and Arizona round out the night. Let’s dive into the best NCAA Tournament player props for Saturday’s Final Four action.
We'll dish out the top plays for both games, highlighting a few players worth betting on. Note that these lines are accurate as of writing, but are always subject to change. Here are the best NCAA Tournament player prop bets for both Final Four games on Saturday, April 4th. Best of luck.
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Saturday's Best NCAA Tournament Player Props
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Koa Peat Under 15.5 Points (-115)
Koa Peat has been an offensive force for Arizona lately. The Wildcats' stud freshman is averaging 17.5 points per game during the NCAA Tournament, while scoring 21 and 20 points in the team’s Sweet 16 and Elite 8 wins, respectively. Despite how well Peat is playing, though, it's worth fading him in a tough Final Four matchup.
Michigan boasts one of the best interior defenses. The Wolverines rank third nationally in both two-point defense and block rate, while ranking first in the country in KenPom defensive efficiency. That doesn't bode well for Peat, who lives in the paint and thrives on scoring around the rim. He's also not a threat from three-point range, going just 6-of-19 (31%) on deep balls all season.
Points will be tough to come by for Peat in this matchup. Michigan has multiple big men to limit his effectiveness inside and force other Arizona scorers to step up. The Wolverines can task either Yaxel Lendeborg or Morez Johnson Jr. to guard Peat, both of whom bring physicality and size. Plus, there's 7-foot-3 Aday Mara and his elite shot-blocking ability.
It's also worth noting that Peat has underperformed against some top-tier defenses this season. He was held to just four points in each meeting with Iowa State and managed only six points against Kansas. In addition, he averaged 11.3 points per game (PPG) in tough non-conference matchups against UConn, UCLA and San Diego State earlier in the season.
Trey McKenney Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-111)
Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara and Elliot Cadeau are rightfully the headliners for Michigan's offense. However, the role players will be key in this semifinal matchup. Trey McKenney is among those under-the-radar Wolverines to target.
The freshman is Michigan's best three-point threat, statistically speaking. McKenney is shooting a team-high 38.4% from beyond the arc, and his 63 made threes this season barely trail Lendeborg's 64 for the team lead. That perimeter scoring will likely be needed against Arizona, which boasts a strong paint defense.
McKenney has made multiple three-pointers in 13 of the last 19 games, shooting 41.3% from deep in this stretch. He only went 1-of-3 on threes in the Elite Eight win, but that was also a blowout victory in which he logged 19 minutes. In the two games prior, McKenney was 3-of-5 and 2-of-3 from long distance against Alabama and Saint Louis, respectively.
McKenney should be locked into enough playing time and three-point volume to make two or more deep shots in this Final Four contest. He's seen an uptick in minutes ever since L.J. Cason was lost for the season in late February. Plus, Arizona's defense will likely be focused on stopping Lendeborg and Cadeau, creating more open looks.
Alex Karaban Over 11.5 Points (-125)
Amid UConn's massive comeback in the Elite 8, Alex Karaban had a rough scoring night. He only had five points while shooting 2-of-10 from the field and 1-of-6 from three-point range. That's a very uncharacteristic performance for the Huskies senior, who should bounce back in the Final Four.
Karaban put up 22, 27 and 17 points in the first three games of the NCAA Tournament before the dud outing versus Duke. He also shot a combined 11-of-25 from three (44%) in that stretch. That's more like it. It's also worth noting that Karaban is averaging 15.3 PPG in games after being held to single digits this season, including 15+ points in eight of the last nine instances.
Karaban's three-point shooting will be key in this matchup against Illinois, which has a strong interior defense. The Fighting Illini also funnel shots to the perimeter, allowing the 26th-most three-point attempts per game.
There should be plenty of looks for Karaban, who is averaging 13.2 PPG this year. He's the Huskies' best deep threat, shooting 38.6% on threes. It’s also worth noting that he’s scored 12+ points in 63% of UConn’s games this season.