NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets: National Championship (UConn vs. Michigan)
UConn and Michigan are set to battle for a National Championship tonight, and I'm looking at three NCAA Tournament player props for the contest. Michigan is favored by 7.5 points, which is why I'm looking favorably at Trey McKenney, a player who has been quietly excellent this tournament. However, my other two props focus on areas where Aday Mara and Braylon Mullins may struggle tonight. Here are the best player prop bets for the NCAA Tournament National Championship.
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Monday’s Best NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Trey McKenney Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (-114)
Trey McKenney was fantastic from beyond the three-point line against Arizona, knocking down four of his six attempts. It was his third game of the NCAA Tournament with at least two three-pointers. He's averaging 2.2 trees on 4.2 attempts in the tournament, shooting 52.4% from deep.
McKenney is just a 39.4% three-point shooter this season, and he's only averaging 1.7 makes per game. He gets a very tough matchup against a UConn defense giving up just 5.9 three-pointers per game.
However, McKenney leads Michigan in three-pointers. Considering how well he's shot the ball all tournament, this line is giving UConn's defense too much credit when it comes to shutting down one of the hottest shooters in the nation.
Aday Mara Under 7.5 Rebounds (-114)
If there is one area that Michigan undoubtedly has an advantage in tonight, it's rebounding. The Wolverines are averaging over 40 rebounds per game, ranking 16th in the nation. UConn ranks just 118th.
However, this line doesn't make a lot of sense. Yes, Aday Mara grabbed nine rebounds against Arizona in the Final Four. However, he didn't haul in more than seven rebounds in any of his other four games. In fact, in three of his last five games, Aday pulled down five rebounds or fewer.
Dating back to before the tournament, Mara has grabbed seven or fewer rebounds in 23 of his last 28 games. Only twice during that entire span did he pull down more than eight rebounds. This is a great matchup, and if this number was set at 6.5, I'd probably take the over. But other than his Final Four performance, there's nothing to justify Mara hitting this over tonight.
Braylon Mullins Under 12.5 Points (-132)
It's been an up-and-down tournament for UConn's hero against Duke. Braylon Mullins scored at least 15 points in two of his five games, but has scored 12 or fewer in his other three. Even in the game where he hit the game-winner, he scored only 10 points, and he managed just eight against Michigan State.
This type of inconsistency plagued him throughout the year, as he scored 11 or fewer points in six of his last eight games before the tournament, but managed to top 20 in the other two.
While Michigan allows a lot of three-pointers, the Wolverines allow opponents to make just 30.5% of their shots from deep. That could be a real problem for Mullins, who attempts 62% of his shots from beyond the arc.
Even if Mullins does put up a high volume of shots, he has made more than two three-pointers just once in the tournament, despite attempting at least five in each of his games.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.