NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets: Round 1 (Thursday)
Rejoice, college basketball fans. The first round of the NCAA Tournament finally gets underway on Thursday with a full slate of games. It all gets started with TCU vs. Ohio State and wraps up with Idaho vs. Houston. Let's dive into the best NCAA Tournament props for today's March Madness action.
We have pinpointed a trio of player props to lock in before you enjoy the games. Note that all betting odds and lines are accurate as of this writing but subject to change. Let's get to it.
- NCAA Tournament Odds
- NCAA Tournament Pick’Em Contest
- NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Optimizer
- NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NCAA Tournament Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Adrian Wooley Over 11.5 Points (-120)
In case you missed it, Mikel Brown Jr. will remain out for Louisville in its first-round matchup against South Florida. The stud freshman is dealing with a back injury and has already sat out 12 games. While this certainly hurts the Cardinals' chances of advancing, Brown's absence allows us to target another player’s prop.
Adrian Wooley has stepped into a larger starting role in Louisville's offense with his teammate out. He's averaging just 8.5 points per game (PPG) this season, but that number jumps up to 11.9 PPG in 14 contests with Brown sidelined or playing limited minutes. That includes 11+ points in nine of those 14 games.
Wooley recently put up 17, 15 and 14 points in three games over the past month with Brown out/limited. Louisville's offense still mainly runs through Ryan Conwell and J'Vonne Hadley, but Wooley has emerged as one of the top secondary scorers. He's also logging 31 minutes per game over his past four starts in place of Brown.
This matchup against South Florida should be fast-paced and high-scoring. Both teams play at top-20 offensive paces, and the total is hovering in the 160s. The uptempo environment helps Wooley's scoring chances even more.
Rashaun Agee Under 16.5 Points (-111)
Rashaun Agee led Texas A&M in scoring this season with a 14.7 PPG average. He's also been playing well lately, averaging 18.1 PPG over the past seven games. However, the Aggies big man gets a very tough matchup today against Saint Mary's, and his scoring could be capped.
Saint Mary's boasts the 20th-best defensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom, while allowing just 64.6 PPG (seventh in Division I). Most notably, the defense shuts down the interior. The Gaels rank 20th nationally in two-point defense and fourth in defensive rebounding. They boast a ton of size and length in the frontcourt, too, with 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels and 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever protecting inside.
Buckets will be tough to come by for Agee, who usually lives in the paint. Plus, he has better scoring outputs when he's drawing fouls around the rim and getting to the free-throw line. It's something he can do well against undersized frontcourts, but that likely won't be the case in this matchup. Saint Mary's avoids fouling at the 11th-best rate in the country.
Furthermore, it's a notable pace-down spot for Agee. The Aggies play at the 29th-quickest tempo in the sport, while Saint Mary's is 298th. The Gaels will look to slow this game down, leaning on their suffocating defense. That lowers the projections for Aggies scorers, who are used to playing in SEC track meets.
Saint Mary's is projected to win this game, and its defense can keep Agee quiet while forcing other Texas A&M scorers to step up. Notably, Agee has averaged 13.3 PPG in losses this season, being held to fewer than 16.5 points in eight of those 11 games.
Kennard Davis Jr. Over 10.5 Points (+100)
One of the higher totals on Thursday features No. 6 seed BYU taking on No. 11 seed Texas. Both teams have struggled defensively lately, and we should see plenty of points in this matchup. Let's target one of those scorers who may be flying under the radar.
AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright headline BYU’s fast-paced, high-scoring offense. Both can go off for 30+ points on their own. However, the Cougars’ third scoring option will be key in this game against Texas. That would be Kennard Davis, who’s stepped into a larger offensive role since Richie Saunders' season-ending injury.
Davis is averaging 14.7 PPG over the past seven games with Saunders out. He just went off for 20 and 15 points in a pair of Big 12 Tournament games. Davis also scored 16 points versus Texas Tech and 17 points versus Iowa State over the last month.
Texas will likely focus its defense on stopping Dybantsa and Wright. That should open up more shot attempts for Davis, especially from three-point range. His threat from the perimeter will be key against the Longhorns, who rank 301st nationally in three-point defense. Davis has taken on notably more three-point looks with Saunders sidelined.
Whether or not he makes those three-point shots is a different story. Davis just went 0-for-5 from deep against Houston in the Big 12 tourney. Before that, though, he made four or more threes in three straight games and shot a combined 13-of-25 (52%) in that stretch. If Texas is locked in on Dybantsa and Wright, then some open attempts could be coming for Davis - especially against a shaky defense.