NCAA Tournament Player Props & Bets: Sweet 16 (2026 March Madness)
The Sweet 16 gets underway on Thursday, and it's time to take a look at some of the best NCAA Tournament player props for Thursday and Friday action. Can Bennett Stirtz rebound from a poor shooting night against Florida and help lead Iowa to a win? Will Motiejus Krivas continue his domination on the glass against Arkansas? And what should we expect from Oziyah Sellers against Duke's excellent defense?
Here are the best Sweet 16 player prop bets.
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NCAA Tournament Player Props
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Bennett Stirtz to Score 15+ Points & Iowa to Win (+130)
Bennet Stirtz went 0-of-9 from three-point range against Florida in the Round of 32, but he still managed to score 13 points. Considering he's averaging 2.4 three-pointers per game, it's great to see he can still score almost 15 points even when he doesn't make any threes.
Stirtz is averaging 19.7 points per game, and he's scored at least 15 points in all but nine games this season. Six of those nine performances came before Christmas, so he's been hot since the start of the new year.
Unfortunately, one of those subpar performances came against the Nebraska team he will face in the Sweet 16, as Stirtz managed just 11 points versus Nebraska on March 8th. However, Stirtz also scored 25 in a game against Nebraska this year, and considering how consistently he reaches 15 points, getting to that number again is essentially a lock.
This will come down to whether or not Iowa can pull out the win. I love the Hawkeyes in this matchup. They defeated Nebraska by five points earlier this season, and though they lost at Nebraska, they still performed well enough to force overtime. If Iowa could beat Florida without Stirtz making a single three-pointer, the Hawkeyes should have no trouble with Nebraska if Stirtz scores at least 15 points.
Motiejus Krivas Over 8.5 Rebounds (+102)
Motiejus Krivas was incredible in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. While he struggled from the floor against Utah State, he also pulled down 14 rebounds in that game, tied for his second-most this season. While he only had seven rebounds against Long Island University, Krivas only played 22 minutes in that game.
Arkansas isn't a great rebounding team, averaging just 36.3 per game. But more importantly, the Razorbacks are allowing 11.4 offensive rebounds per game, which ranks 284th in the country. Krivas really excels on the offensive glass, grabbing boards 3.1 per game.
While Krivas is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, which is slightly below this posted total, getting the over at +102 odds in a very good matchup is hard to pass up.
Oziyah Sellers Under 8.5 Points (-114)
Oziyah Sellers is averaging 10.5 points per game this season, but he scored only three points in 21 minutes against Kansas in the Round of 32. He has 14 games with fewer than 8.5 points, and this is a bad matchup for his style of play.
Sellers is only averaging 3.8 made field goals per game, and 1.4 of those come from three-point range. And while Sellers has made the most three-pointers of any St. John's player, he's going to struggle against Duke's 25th-ranked three-point defense.
Duke has the third-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 63.1 points per game. I expect most St. John's players to go below their season averages. Don't be tempted by this total just because it's set two points below Sellers' season average. Oddsmakers have good reasons to set the number so low.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.