NCAA Tournament Same Game Parlay: Purdue vs. Arizona (Elite Eight)
It’s on to the Elite Eight, as we have a pair of NCAA Tournament regional final games on tap for Saturday. Let’s dive into the best Same Game Parlay picks for today’s March Madness action. In particular, let’s focus on the Purdue vs. Arizona showdown to decide a Final Four berth from the West. Note that these lines and odds are accurate as of this writing, but are always subject to change. Best of luck!
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Saturday’s Best NCAA Tournament Same Game Parlay Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook)
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats
- Leg 1: Arizona Team Total Over 79.5 Points (-135)
- Leg 2: Koa Peat 15+ Points (-155)
- Leg 3: Fletcher Loyer 3+ Made Three-Pointers (-140)
Arizona's explosive offense will likely be the deciding factor in this matchup. The Wildcats are coming off a dominant Sweet 16 performance, dropping 109 points on Arkansas. When they're playing at this level, the offense is tough to stop. The Cats' combination of tempo, ball movement, and scoring depth makes them incredibly tough to contain.
Arizona ranks fourth in the country in KenPom offensive efficiency, and the Wildcats are averaging 85.4 PPG over the past 10 games. Overall, this offensive firepower may be too much for Purdue to handle. The Boilermakers looked vulnerable defensively against Texas, allowing 77 points. That performance also echoed their defensive struggles late in the regular season, where they surrendered 79.3 PPG over the final six contests. Purdue gave up 90+ points to the high-powered offenses of Michigan and Wisconsin in that stretch, too.
The Wildcats' ability to push the pace could be key in controlling the game's flow. Their transition offense can turn this into a faster-paced matchup. Arizona can exploit some of Purdue's inconsistencies on defense while getting scoring from all over the roster. The ‘Cats are now averaging 87.4 PPG over their last nine NCAA Tournament games under Tommy Lloyd, and they should get to 80+ tonight.
Any five or six players can lead Arizona in scoring in a given game. Let's bank on Koa Peat, though, to play a major role in the offense against Purdue. The stud freshman just put up 21 points against Arkansas, and he's now averaging 16.7 PPG in the NCAA Tournament.
Peat's ability to score around the rim and bully opposing defenders in the paint will be a problem for Purdue. This defense ranks 249th nationally in opposing two-point shooting, and it especially struggles against power-forward types. Trey Kaufman-Renn is more of an offensive big and teams target him down low, while Oscar Cluff has his hands full with opposing centers.
Arizona would be smart to feed Peat against TKR, while Cluff is matched up with Arizona center Motiejus Krivas. The Boilermakers just had issues stopping Dailyn Swain inside, as the Texas power forward went for 15 points. In the Round of 32, Purdue allowed both Shelton Henderson (18 points) and Malik Reneau (16) to do damage. Before that, we saw Yaxel Lendeborg (20 points) and Nick Martinelli (25) have success inside against the Boilermakers. Let's add Peat to that list.
Fletcher Loyer has been on fire from three-point range lately. Purdue's senior has four made threes in all three NCAA Tournament games thus far, shooting 60% from deep overall. He's also drained 3+ perimeter shots in six straight games now.
Loyer's sharpshooting ability will be key for Purdue to keep this game close. Arizona is elite at shutting down the paint, which will keep Kaufman-Renn and Cluff in check. Plus, they have the size and athleticism to frustrate Braden Smith at the point. That leads us to Loyer taking on more three-point attempts, especially if the Boilermakers are trailing and need perimeter scoring to make up a deficit.
Loyer is shooting a lights-out 43.5% from three-point range this season. We noted above how many threes he's been hitting during March Madness, but this hot stretch dates back further. Loyer now has 3+ made three-pointers in 12 of his last 17 games, while shooting 50% from deep since the beginning of February. Arizona has a strong three-point defense, but Loyer's volume should get him to this prop.
Parlay Odds: +270