NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: South Region (2026 March Madness)
The NCAA Tournament is in full swing. Thursday saw plenty of entertaining first-round matchups with a few upsets busting brackets. Let’s now look ahead to Saturday’s second round games with Sweet 16 berths on the line.
Specifically, we’ll focus on two games in the South region of the March Madness bracket. Find out which key stats and trends are worth paying attention to as you place your college basketball picks and bets.
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NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: South Region
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No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars
Texas A&M was one of four double-digit seeds to win on Thursday. The Aggies led Saint Mary's wire-to-wire en route to a 13-point victory. Houston, meanwhile, throttled No. 15 seed Idaho in the first round with a 78-47 win. Let's break down how these in-state opponents match up ahead of Saturday's Round of 32 game.
Houston will need to lean on its elite defense and slow pace to control the game and avoid an upset. The Cougars rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency at KenPom, while giving up just 62.4 points per game (PPG), the second-fewest amount in Division I. They're 351st in the country in overall tempo, led by the hounding defense that regularly forces teams late into the shot clock.
The Cougars force turnovers at a top-15 rate in the sport, and they are in the top 10 in two-point defense. Shutting down the paint will be key against Texas A&M big man Rashaun Agee, who tries to play bully-ball around the rim. Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler give Houston plenty of size, length and defensive instincts to quiet Agee.
Texas A&M could have a ton of issues scoring against Houston if Agee is held in check. He just put up 22 points in the first round, but his squad still only managed 63 total points. Saint Mary's also played at a slow pace, like the Cougars, which will put the A&M offense out of its comfort zone. The Aggies rank 16th in offensive tempo and 39th in overall pace. That's exactly the opposite of how Houston usually dictates the flow of games.
On the other end, the big thing with Texas A&M is how its opponents handle the full-court press defense. Head coach Bucky McMillan loves to deploy the press, and it tends to go one of two ways. Teams may have trouble getting the ball past halfcourt and, when they do, the offense sputters with bad shots and turnovers. That was the case against Saint Mary's, which turned it over 18 times and shot just 38% from the field.
Conversely, if teams figure out the press, then A&M's defense could easily give up 80 or 90 points. That happened regularly in the SEC against the upper-tier of the league. It can also easily be the case on Saturday against Houston. The Cougars have a trio of trusted ball-handlers to break the press. Kingston Flemings, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan headline an offense that ranks seventh nationally in avoiding turnovers.
Notably, Texas A&M has underperformed against its toughest competition this season. The Aggies faced five top-20 KenPom teams and lost every time. That includes double-digit losses to each of Texas A&M's three hardest opponents thus far - Florida, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. The first-round win over Saint Mary's was impressive, but it also may have been more about the Gaels' struggles. It's hard to see Houston losing this game, and it should win fairly comfortably.
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that outperformed preseason expectations. At one point in January, Vanderbilt and Nebraska were both undefeated and ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll. The Commodores and Cornhuskers both avoided first-round upsets and now meet up with a Sweet 16 berth on the line.
Vanderbilt got pushed at times by McNeese on Thursday, but it eventually stretched out a double-digit lead in the second half to pull away. Breakout guard Tyler Tanner led the way with 26 points, seven rebounds and five assists. The Commodores' 10-point win over a dangerous No. 12 seed was an encouraging sign, especially after they recently made a run to the SEC Tournament Championship.
Nebraska, meanwhile, handled business in a major way against No. 13 seed Troy. The Cornhuskers won by 29 points to lock up the program's first-ever NCAA Tournament victory. Some thought Fred Hoiberg's squad could be on upset watch, but Troy looked overmatched for most of the game.
The deciding matchup will be how well Vanderbilt's top-tier offense does against Nebraska's elite defense. The Commodores are eighth nationally in offensive efficiency, while the Cornhuskers are seventh in defense, per KenPom. More specifically, Vanderbilt’s success or failure from the three-point range could determine the game.
Nebraska has a volatile perimeter defense. On the one hand, the Huskers hold opponents to just 29.8% from three-point range (eighth in Division I). However, they also give up the seventh-most three-point attempts per game. The deep shots will be there for Vanderbilt, who have a few shooters that can get hot. Tyler Nickel (39.9% three-point rate), AK Okereke (38.9% three-point rate) and Tanner (37.3% three-point rate) could be key.
If Vanderbilt can make enough three-pointers, the offense will be tough to stop. The Commodores take care of the ball and make their free throws, ranking 14th nationally in offensive turnover rate and fourth in free-throw rate.
On the other end, Nebraska's offense also relies heavily on perimeter scoring. The Cornhuskers rank 14th in the country in three-point attempts and 19th in made threes per game. This style also makes the offense tough to predict. Vanderbilt usually does well to limit opposing three-point scoring.
The Commodores do have two glaring weaknesses defensively. They struggle on the defensive boards and give up a ton of free throws. Vanderbilt ranks 242nd nationally in defensive rebounding rate and 327th in free-throw attempts per game allowed. However, Nebraska's offense struggles in both areas. It ranks 310th in offensive rebounding and 354th in free-throw attempts per game.