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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks: Midwest Region (March Madness)

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The 2026 NCAA Tournament started with a field of 68 teams, and just like that, in the blink of an eye, in four days, we’re down to 16 teams. It’s the Sweet 16, and we get a change of venues, as teams go back home for a few days before venturing out to their new sites. For the Midwest Region, that means two games Friday at the United Center in Chicago. Here are our NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks for the Midwest Region.

We’ll get the No. 4 seed Alabama Crimson Tide of the SEC facing the No. 1 seed Michigan Wolverines of the Big Ten at 7:35 p.m. ET. At approximately 10:10 p.m. ET in Friday’s nightcap, the No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers, also of the SEC, will meet the No. 2 seed Iowa State Cyclones of the Big 12. We’ll preview Friday’s two Midwest Region games below.

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Picks: Midwest Region

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | All bets are for 1 unit

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (+400) vs. No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (-550)

In the first game at 7:35 p.m. ET, the Crimson Tide (25-9) meet the Wolverines (33-3) at the United Center. This will be the first meeting since Nov. 29, 2009, when Alabama won 68-66 as a four point underdog as the Under (134.5) cashed. That was a holiday tournament game played at State Farm Field House, then called HP Field House, at The ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Central Florida.

Alabama has arrived at this point with a pair of emphatic victories, posting a 90-70 win over No. 13 seed Hofstra in the first round, covering as an 11.5-point favorite as the Over (158.5) cashed. In the second round, the Crimson Tide showed No. 5 seed Texas Tech the door, routing the Red Raiders 90-65 in a rather anticlimactic game in Tampa on Sunday night.

The Crimson Tide seem to have really banded together following the arrest of Aden Holloway, the team’s No. 2 leading scorer, picking up the slack where needed, and thrusting ahead, rather than letting that off-court situation be a distraction. Against Texas Tech, Alabama shot 44 percent (30-of-68) from the field, while showing off uncharacteristic defense, limiting Texas Tech to just 34 percent (21-of-61) from the field, and a dismal 16 percent (4-of-25) from the field. To be fair, the Red Raiders just missed a lot of open looks, too, and as they built a deep hole, things snowballed, and their shot selection wasn’t as careful as it would have been in a close game.

Anyway, Bama was a plus-12 in rebounding margin, while it had 25 assists to just 13 turnovers, while Tech had only eight assists with 10 turnovers. Fast-break points also went to Alabama, with a 15-to-5 margin. Labaron Philon Jr. misfired on 10 of his 12 field-goal attempts, managing just nine points, but he was a solid facilitator, dishing out 12 assists with six rebounds to pick up the slack. He scored well in the first game, but didn’t have it in Game 2. Latrell Wrightsell picked up the pace with a game-high 24 points after he flamed out against Hofstra. Amari Allen stepped up with 12 points, too, while Houston Mallette surprised off the bench with 15 points, all on threes.

Michigan has an extra day of rest, not that they need it. The top seed made quick work of Cream Abdul Jabbar and the Saint Louis Billikens in the second round, winning 95-72. The Wolverines were crisp on offense, hitting 56 percent (34-of-61) from the field, including 48 percent (11-of-23) from downtown. The Wolverines also had a plus-15 rebounding margin, while blocking nine shots, to just one for SLU. It turned the ball over only nine times, too, while posting 20 dimes for a solid assist-to-turnover ratio, which will make head coach Dusty May happy.

All five starters were into double figures against the Billikens, with Yaxel Lendeborg pacing the team with 25 points on 9-of-13 shooting, including 3-of-5 from behind the arc. All five starters had at least four rebounds, at least two assists, and at least one block, too, so it was a tremendous team effort.

Alabama enters 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past seven games, while the Under holds a slight 4-3 advantage in those games. The Tide faced two Big Ten teams during the season, beating Illinois 90-86 on a neutral floor on Nov. 19 as a 2.5-point underdog as the Under (180.5) cashed, while losing 87-80 to Purdue on Nov. 13 as a 2.5-point favorite as the Under (172.5) also hit.

With the cover against Saint Louis, Michigan halted a six-game ATS skid. The Over has cashed in each of the past three games, too. The Wolverines faced just one SEC team this season, absolutely boat-racing Auburn 102-72 in Las Vegas in the Players Era Festival back on Nov. 25.

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (+152) vs. No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones (-184)

The Volunteers (24-11) meet the Cyclones (29-7) in the second game of the evening on Friday in Chicago.

This will be the first meeting between these institutions on the hardwood since Jan. 27, 2018, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. The Vols rolled up a 68-45 win as 2.5-point favorites as the Under (145) cashed.

Tennessee arrives in Chicago with a couple of nice victories. It rolled No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio) 78-56 in the opener as a 12.5-point favorite, while holding off No. 3 seed Virginia 79-72 as a 1.5-point favorite. The Over (137.5) cashed in that game, which is a bit of a rarity for the Vols lately, as the Under is 7-2 in the past nine games, and 10-3 across the previous 13 outings.

The Vols were 47 percent (26-of-55) from the field against the Hoos, with Ja’Kobi Gillespie leading the way with 21 points, including three triples. Felix Okpara had just seven points, but he was good for eight rebounds and four blocks, doing what he does best on the defensive end. Nate Ament chipped in with 16 points against UVA, too.

Iowa State has been humming in this tournament, and that’s impressive considering Joshua Jefferson (ankle) was wheeling around in a leg scooter due to a severely sprained ankle suffered early in the first-round matchup with No. 16 seed Tennessee State. Jefferson was second on the team with 16.4 PPG, just behind Milan Momcilovic (17.2 PPG). Jefferson is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.4 RPG, and he is second with 4.9 APG and 1.6 SPG, too.

The Cyclones pounded Kentucky 82-63, despite Jefferson looking on in street clothes. Iowa State hit 46 percent (28-of-61) from the field, while going 32 percent (9-of-28) from downtown. If it could improve anywhere, it’s at the free-throw stripe, going just 71 percent (17-of-24), leaving a few free points on the floor. The Cyclones also were just plus-1 against Kentucky in the rebounding department, but they turned it over just seven times, while coaxing 20 turnovers for Big Blue. The Cyclones worked it into the paint well, posting 34 points, while producing 13 fast-break points, too.

Tennessee has covered three of four games in the postseason on neutral floors, while going 5-3 ATS in eight games at neutral sites. The Under is 3-1 in the postseason and 4-1 in the past five neutral-site games.

Iowa State has covered all five games in the postseason, while going 6-0 ATS in the past six games. And, perhaps even more impressive, Iowa State is 9-0 ATS this season on a neutral floor. The Under is 3-2 in five neutral-site games in the postseason, too.

Joe Williams is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Joe, check out his archive and follow him @winwithjoe.


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